The Keltner List: Jack Morris

Since this is the last year that Jack Morris is eligible, I thought it right to put him through the Keltner List.

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball?

Not to my knowledge.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

I don't think so. The mid 1980s Tigers featured Lou Whitaker, Allan Trammell and Kirk Gibson. Roberto Alomar was probably the best player on the '92 championship Blue Jays, while the best player for the Twins was the late Kirby Puckett

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

I don't think so. I think many would take Bert Blyleven,  Dwight Gooden, Brett Saberhagen, Roger Clemens in the 1980s or Maddux and Glavine at the end of Morris' career. Morris never won a Cy Young Award, not that that automatically makes the winner the best in his league.

One thing put forth is that Morris is the winningest pitcher of the 1980s. This is roughly parallel to the argument that since Mark Grace has the most hits of the 1990s, he should be in the Hall. Morris won 14 games every year from 1979-88. He led the league in victories once (1981), innings pitched and strikeouts once (1983), shutouts once (1986) and was a CY contender three times. Let's compare him to other pitchers during those seasons:

Roger Clemens 1984-88: Clemens reached the Red Sox in 1984 and won two more CY awards in 5 seasons than Morris won in his career. He also led the league in wins as many times in that span as Morris did in his career.

Tommy John won 20 games as many times as Jack Morris during that time period.

Dave Steib won 131 games in those 10 years, and led the league in more categories than Morris.

Just because a pitcher or hitter compiled more of whatever stat you wish to pick over a decade does not make that player a hall of famer. Morris was a good pitcher during the 1980s and a durable one. Does that make him a hall of famer? Good and durable? There were two seasons in the 1980s where Lamarr Hoyt was a better pitcher than Morris.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

This is the cornerstone upon which Morris' candidacy rests (along with the Pitcher of the 1980s argument). Morris won the Babe Ruth Award, given to the most valuable post season player, twice. Here are his combined stats for the 1984, 1987 and 1991 playoffs:

Record: 7-1
ERA: 2.59
WHIP: 1.096

In 69 1/3 IP, Morris allowed 20 ER, walked 17 and struck out 46. In 1992 with the Jays, Morris did not pitch well and did not get past the sixth inning in either of his World Series starts.

With the Twins facing elimination in the 1991 ALCS, the ball went to Morris and he tossed a near complete game to force a game five.

The 1991 World Series for my money is the best of all time. Seven games, all but two decided by one run, three extra inning games. Morris won game one and then painted his masterpiece in game 7. In a scoreless tie game, Morris allowed two baserunners after the fifth inning and won 1-0 on a Gene Larkin single in the bottom of the 10th. In the sixth, with runners on 2nd and 3rd with no out, Morris retired Ron Gant on a weak grounder to first, intentionally walked Dave Justice, then got Sid Bream for a double play grounder.

Far before this, however, Morris had a reputation as a big game pitcher. The evidence?

1983:  The Tigers were 4 back on July 16th. Morris won 10 straight decisions in July and August, throwing 8 CG and a shutout. Only the Orioles (Who won 29 of their last 41 games) kept the Tigers out. Morris could still get the fastball up in the mid-90s then. but not after the next season.

1984: Not much of a race. Morris won 10 of his first 11 games as the Tigers won 35 of their first 40 games. His ERA in his first 11 starts was 1.88

1987: With the Tigers tied for first on Aug 21, Morris pitched on three days rest for much of the month of September with mixed results, a 1-4 record. However, with the Blue Jays collapsing, Morris threw 9 innings of 2 run ball at them on October 3, combining with Mike Henneman to put the Tigers up for good.

1988: The Tigers finish second by a game to the Red Sox; Morris won 8 of his last 10 decisions, including 3 games in 14 days in September.

Morris was on 4 world series title teams, and was vital to the success of three of them (in 1993, Morris was injured). What jumps out, however, is that Morris wanted the ball in big games. One gets the feeling that his manager wanted him on the bump as well.


5. Was he a good enough player to contribute past his prime?

Think about this. Morris led the AL in wins twice: 1981 at age 26 and 1992 at age 37. He led the league in complete games at age 35. When the end came, it came swiftly at age 39.

6. Is he the best player in baseball history not in the Hall of Fame?

No.

7. Are most players with similar statistics in the Hall of Fame?

James points out in Politics of Glory that for ordinary players, "we can usually find 5-10 players who were truly similar or well up in the range of the essentially similar." (93) he described essentially similar as having a similarity score of 850 or more. Morris does have 10 of those. But who are they?

Five of them are Hall of Famers (Bob Gibson, Red Ruffing, Amos Rusie, Burleigh Grimes and Bob Feller). One could be (Andy Pettite) and the other four won't be (Chuck Finley, Luis Tiant, Dennis Martinez and Jamie Moyer). Martinez is the most similar to Morris. In 2004, Martinez received 3.2% of the vote on the ballot. Why? Martinez made three starts in two World Series (1979 and 1995, which is something in and of itself) and did not win any of them. Morris record is 254-186, Martinez 245-193. Morris was named to 5 AS teams, Martinez 4. According to James, any score over 900 is "truly similar" and Martinez is at a 903.

In many ways, this is a fascinating list. Feller  (The Heater from Van Meter) and Rusie (The Hoosier Thunderbolt) are considered two of the hardest throwers of all time. Gibson was the most intimidating mound presence of the last 50 years. Tiant was a swirling, twisting, mustachioed work of art who would use any arm angle or pitch at nearly any time. Moyer was slow, slower or slowest. Grimes was the last of the legal spitballers. Ruffing won 273 games and in many ways benefited by playing on the late 1930s New York Yankees. I would argue that in form as well as in stats, Martinez is truly the most similar to Morris.

8.Do the players numbers meet hall of fame standards?

Morris scores a 39 on standards with an average hall of famer at 50. He scores a 122 on the monitor with an average hall of famer at 100. Morris was not a dominant pitcher, but he was a good pitcher for quite a while.

As an example, there are things called the Black Ink test and Grey Ink test, measuring how many times that player led the league or appeared in the top 10 in important pitching categories. Going back to that increasingly interesting set of comparison scores, we get this list:

Player	Black Ink	Grey Ink
Feller	98	232
Rusie	52	179
Grimes	38	213
Gibson	20	207
Morris	20	193
Martinez	17	135
Tiant	13	112
Ruffing	11	258
Pettite	7	103
Moyer	3	106

Morris is in the middle, but much closer to the non hall of famers in the bunch. Red Ruffing beats Morris by 65 in the grey ink test and won 20 games four years in a row.

While Gibson and Morris look similar, Gibson made 7 AS teams and won two more CY awards than Morris and turned in a seven year peak period with nearly double the peak WAR Value. He was also marginally better in the series (see #15)

9.Is there evidence to suggest he was much better or worse than his statistics?

His post season record and the fact that he made 14 consecutive opening day starts, the last being in 1993. Morris was one of the last pitchers to routinely throw 10 complete games every year, and he was incredibly durable (34 GS per year from 1982-88). Morris was a bulldog.

10.Is he the best player eligible who has not been inducted?

No. Clemens, Maddux and Glavine would be ahead of Morris on my ballot. Lee Smith may also be ahead of Morris.

11. How many Cy Young type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP or Cy Young Award? If not, how often did he come close?

Morris appeared in the top 15 in the MVP voting three times. He was the Sporting News 1981 pitcher of the year in the AL (Steve McCatty or Morris probably should have won the Cy Young instead of Rollie Fingers that year) and he finished in the top five in the CY voting 5 times. I don't see a year, other than 1981, where it can be argued that Morris should have won the award. Dan Quisenberry was awesome in 1983, Clemens was dominant in 1991.

12. How many all star type seasons did he have? How many All Star teams did he play for? Did most other players selected to that many All Star games get elected to the Hall of Fame?

Morris made five all star teams and started three games (1981, 1985 and 1991). In 1979, Morris was 9-2 after the All Star break but was probably deserving in what was his first excellent season. Most pitchers who started three all star games have many more appearances than Morris, though some of them benefited by having two all star games in one year (Spahn 17, Clemens 11, Ford 10, Bunning 9, Maddux 8 Billy Pierce 7).

13. If this man was the best player on his team, could that team conceivably win the pennant?

I am inclined to say no, even though with Morris circa 1979-87 as an ace the team would contend.

14.What impact did the player have on baseball history?

Morris is outspoken in his criticism of PEDs and turned in one of the greatest world series performances in baseball history. Larry Granillo wrote an article about Morris for the Hardball Times (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/is-collusion-to-blame-for-jack-morris-hof-case/) that is an interesting look at the impact of collusion on Morris, and well worth a read.

15.Did the player uphold the standards of the hall of fame?

As far as I know.

Jack Morris is not a hall of famer. He was a good pitcher for a long time and pitched very well in the postseason. Do 9 games of post-season greatness make someone a hall of famer? I don't think so. Some may seek to compare Morris' postseason achievements with Gibson. On the surface, they are similar. Morris was 4-0 in the World Series (I won't count 1992) with a 1.54 ERA and 0.78 WHIP. Gibson is 7-2 with a 1.89 ERA, .889 WHIP in double the innings as Morris. Also, there are the 92 Ks in 81 innings to think about.

Morris clocked his 15 wins in different 12 seasons with no CY awards. Maddux won 15 games 18 seasons in a row and posted 4 CY. Maddux is one of the true great pitchers. Morris was a damn good pitcher, but not a hall of famer.

 

The Keltner List: Barry Bonds 1986-1998

One way to break down the career of Barry Bonds is to look at the pre and post PED versions of the player.  If Game of Shadows  was correct (and it was, in my opinion) Bonds began using PEDs before the 1999 season and continued after until 2004. This makes 1998 a convenient starting point for this conversation, because it has to do with Mark McGwire, who admitted in 2010 that he used steroids. It also includes Sammy Sosa, who most likely used steroids but has not admitted as such and will not any time soon. Why 1998? Bonds had one of his finest seasons.....and no one seemed to notice because of one player known to be on the juice and another who will never admit it. What if he had told the baseball world to screw off and walked off into the sunset?

To that end, let's apply the Keltner List to the half of Bonds' career that he was presumably clean (1986-1998). Perhaps he decided to go off and live in a hut somewhere, or maybe he decided to garden and hang out with his kids. I don't know. I will go through this assuming that Bonds retired in anger after the 1998 season.

Here are his offensive stats from 1986 to 1998:

G	AB	R	H	2b	3b	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
1898	6621	1364	1917	403	63	411	1216	445	130	1357	1050	.290	.411	.556

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball?

He was by several writers, ball players and coaches. James called him the most under appreciated superstar in his lifetime and tabbed him as the best player of the 1990s. Jose Rijo said he was the best player he had ever seen. His college coach, Jim Brock, said he was the best athlete that he had ever coached. Tony Gwynn said he was the best player in the NL, no question

At his height, the "Best Player in Baseball" discussion started with either Bonds or Ken Griffey Jr. Note the discussion started with these two players; they were a blend of power and speed that had not been seen in years, since Willie Mays, Bobby Bonds or perhaps Mantle before his knee problems.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

Bonds was the best player in Pittsburgh from the moment he arrived in 1986. Granted, being the best player on a team that lost 98 games is a dubious honor. Bonds was the centerpiece of the Pirates when they won three consecutive division titles from 1990-92.

Bonds moved to the Giants in 1993 as a free agent. In 1992 the Giants had a good young closer (Rod Beck), Matt Williams, Will Clark and Royce Clayton. That team lost 92 games. In comes Bonds and Dusty Baker and the 1993 Giants win 103 games. He was the best player on those Giants teams; you hear a lot about players "making their teammates better." Bonds hit 5th for most of that season and Williams hit 4th; Williams hit 20 HR in a down year in 1992. With protection he hit 38 in 1993. When Bonds hit 4th in 1994 and Williams 3rd in 1994, Williams had 43 HR at the time of the strike. Williams was a damn good third baseman and a good power hitter. Bonds helped him to a new level.

3.Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

In 1987 I would have picked Tim Raines as the best left fielder in the NL. After that, it is Bonds despite some fine seasons by Kevin Mitchell. His only competitor in the AL during the late 1980s was Rickey Henderson, but by 1990 I'd take Bonds.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

Much is made of Bonds failures in the post season. In Pittsburgh 1990-2 Bonds slashed .191/.337/.265 with 14 BB and 6 SB in 20 games. In 1997, Bonds went 3-12 against the Marlins.

In 1990 Bonds hit 8 HR over the last 28 games as the Pirates went 18-10 and took the division by 4.

In 1993, the Giants held a 9 game lead over the Braves on Aug 11th, then lost the division by 1 game.  The Giants had two series with the Braves after Aug 11th and the Giants lost 5 of 6 games. In those six games, Bonds hit .409 with 2 HR, 3 RBI and 2 SB.

In 1997, Bonds hit seven HR in his last 17 games. In a crucial 6 game road trip in September, the Giants won four games and Bonds drew 8 walks, scored 7 runs and stole 3 bases.

Bonds usually played well down the stretch for teams in a race.

5.Was he a good enough player that he could contribute past his prime?

In 1998, Bonds, age 33, hit 37 HR, the seventh consecutive year he had hit 30 or more. He stole 28 bases, marking the 10th consecutive year he had 20 or more steals. He was awarded his 8th Gold Glove award (four of which he deserved) and hit .300 for the fourth time in his career. He also drew 29 intentional walks to lead the NL, marking the seventh consecutive season he had done so. That bears repetition: Barry Bonds pre-steroids led the NL for seven consecutive seasons in intentional walks. Bonds did not lead the league in any other offensive category, but slashed .303/.438/.639, scored 120 runs, posted 122 RBI with a WAR of 8.1. So, yeah I guess he could.

6.Is he the best player in baseball history not in the Hall of Fame?

With the reduced numbers, I would argue that Ivan Rodriguez is perhaps the best player not in the hall, and he is not yet eligible. Other than that, I would say that Bonds is the best player in history not in the hall of fame.

7. Are players with similar statistics still in the Hall of Fame?

At the end of the 1998 season, four of the top 10 comps for Bonds (Frank Robinson, Duke Snider, Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays) are in the hall of fame. Of the other six, four (Vladimir Guerrero, Jim Thome, Jeff Bagwell and Ken Griffey) deserve strong consideration. The other two (Juan Gonzalez, and Manny Ramirez) were damn good players.

8. Do the players number meet Hall of Fame standards?

Applying the Hall of Fame Standards developed by Bill James (link to definitions here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/leader_glossary.shtml#hof_standard) gives Bonds a rank of 57.91. Rounding to 58, this gives him the same total as the following:

Larry Walker, Ivan Rodriguez, Cal Ripken, Al Kaline, Vladimir Guerrero, Joe DiMaggio and Wade Boggs.

Of these, 4 are Hall of Famers: Ripken, Kaline, DiMaggio and Boggs. Walker has been eligible since 2010 and is getting votes on 20% of the ballots. Rodriguez and Guerrero are eligible in 2016 and one is a first ballot vote while the other (Guererro) should get strong consideration.

Much is made that before the PEDs, Bonds only led the league in HR once, and then he hit "only" 43. This is silly, as Bonds posted 3 pre-1998 Slugging titles, 4 OBP titles and lead the NL in WAR 7 times in 11 seasons.

Here are some Top-10 seasons for Bonds between 1986 and 1998:
Home Runs 9, Stolen Bases 9, Runs 12, Doubles 4, extra base hits 11.

Between 1986 and 1998, Bonds was in the top 10 in the basic offensive categories 109 times in 13 seasons. So, even discounting the post 1998 numbers, Bonds career is certainly of a hall of fame caliber.

9. Is there evidence to suggest that the player was considerably better or worse than his statistics suggest?

Bonds was usually in the top 10 in outfield assists in the NL; his throwing arm was accurate but very average. At age 24, Bonds posted a .258 BA with 19 HR. He also drew 93 walks and stole 32 bases.  This is the secret greatness of Bonds. Between 1990 and 1995, he was the perfect combination of power and speed. Walk him? Sure, put the guy on who successfully stole a base 78% of the time (223 out of 288). Pitch to him? Well, he averaged .74 RBI per game in those five seasons. 1998 was the last season in which Bonds stole 20 bases. In 1988 Jose Canseco posted a 40/40 season. Canseco went 20/20 two other times. Bonds did it 10 times in 13 seasons and went 30/30 five times during that period. In the field, Bonds as a youth could outrun mistakes.

10.Is he the best player eligible who has not been inducted?

Yes, even discounting the post -1998 stats.

11. How many MVP type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

Bonds won three MVPs before 1998: (1990, 1992 and 1993). He finished second in the 1991 voting to....Terry Pendleton????!?!?!?!? Bonds hit more HR, drove in 30 more RBI, stole 33 more bases in 76 fewer at bats than Pendleton. But, the Braves went from worst to first that year and some Dodgers writer gave a first place vote to Brett Butler. Bonds lost by 15 votes.

Bonds finished in the top 5 in voting in 1991, 1994, 1996 and 1997. He finished 8th in 1998.

Including pre-1999 Bonds, there have been ten players who have won three MVP awards. Two (Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez) are active. The other seven (Stan Musial, Mickey Mantle, Joe DiMaggio, Roy Campanella, Mike Schmidt, Jimmie Foxx and Yogi Berra) are all in the hall of fame.

12. How many all star type seasons did he have? How many All Star teams did he play for? Did most other players selected to that many All Star games get elected to the Hall of Fame?

Bonds made 8 All Star games and started seven of them. 14 Other players (as of 1998) had started 7 All Star Games; all are in the Hall of Fame.

13. If this man was the best player on his team, could that team conceivably win the pennant?

Yes, undoubtedly.

14.What impact did the player have on baseball history?
I think the pre-1998 Bonds (and Ken Griffey) cap the argument that the 1980s were the best decade in baseball history as far as talent. I think the next 15-20 years will match and surpass the 1980s, but it was the blend of abilities that Griffey and Bonds had that made an impact. Bonds also was at the forefront of the OPS movement. He (along with Rickey Henderson, Brett Butler and others) brought the base on balls back from the wilderness. The only catch was Bonds by 1989 was a cleanup hitter, a place traditionally reserved for power hitters. He was that and more; better than Dawson in Montreal, better than anyone since Willie Mays.

15.Did the player uphold the standards of the hall of fame?
Arguably, no. Before the PEDs, Bonds was viewed as truculent as Howard Cosell would say. He could be downright arrogant, mouthy and disrespectful. But, as Jim Leyland pointed out, "Barry needed a bit of controversy around him." Bonds personal life turned out to be a mess with a nasty public divorce between 1998 and 2000. His teammates complained about him off and on. He got into a shouting match with Jim Leyland in spring training. But, if the Hall kicked out people who were thought to be jerks, there may be 9 guys left in there.

 Consider that in 1999, The Sporting News voted Bonds the 34th best player of all time with stats through 1997. Bonds is a hall of famer without one HR or anything else after 1998.