Monday, December 30, 2013

The Keltner List: Tom Glavine

Tom Glavine was the one of the three headed monster that just made me angry. Greg Maddux was a scientist on the mound while John Smoltz had that stuff that made you shake your head. Glavine never struck me as a sensational pitcher while he was pitching. He just won games. There was artistry there a plenty; perhaps in my youth (and hatred of the Atlanta Braves) I just missed it completely. Glavine is one of those players who I grew to appreciate as I got older simply because I learned more about the game.

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball?
 
I don't think that Glavine was ever considered the best player in baseball. If so, I have never seen the story. Glavine was an excellent athlete and was drafted in the 4th round by the LA Kings as a hockey player.
 
2. Was he the best player on his team?
 
No; I would vote for Maddux or Smoltz, or Chipper Jones or Andruw Jones.
 
3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?
 
Glavine was generally not considered the best pitcher on his team, let alone in his league or in baseball. In the dark days between the 1982-83 Braves teams and the 1990 team, Glavine lost much more than he won. This had much more to do with his defense than Glavine: in 1989 the Braves had Jeff Blauser and Jeff Treadway on the infield instead of Ron Gant (!) at second and Ken Oberkfell at third.
 
Glavine was 10-14 in 1990, the first year that Mazzone was pitching coach.
 
4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?
 
The Braves appeared in the playoffs with Glavine every single season between 1991 and 2002. Glavine was very effective in his World Series starts and allowed on 33 hits in 58+ innings with a moderately higher K rate than in other postseason appearances. He was the MVP of the 1995 World Series when he won games 2 and 6.
 
Glavine was dominant in the first half of the 1991 season, his first 20 win campaign. He did struggle in September against the second place Dodgers (11+ IP, 18 H, 8 ER) but the Braves took the division by a single game on the power of an 8 game win streak at the end of September in which Glavine won two games.
 
In 1993, Glavine and the Braves won the NL west by a game again, this time over the Giants. Glavine was vital, winning 9 of his last 11 decisions and going 6-1 in September.
 
In 2000, Glavine was only 3-3 in September as the Braves won the east by a game over the Mets; the Braves were in position to win due in part to Glavine's 11 wins in 12 decisions in July and August.  For his career, Glavine was 17-7 against the Mets, 20-16 against the Giants and 20-18 against the Dodgers. Glavine owns a 3.48 career ERA in September.
5. Was he good enough to contribute past his prime?
 
Glavine was a very productive pitcher until 2002 at age 36, and did not go on the DL until 2008. Glavine was down in 2003 but rebounded produce better than league average ERAs for the Mets for the next three years, and was a key element in the 2006 Mets division championship team.
 
6. Is he the best player in history not in the hall of fame?
 
No, as I would still vote for Bonds here, and perhaps Maddux.
 
7. Are most players with similar statistics in the Hall of Fame?
 
Four of Glavine's comps are in the hall of fame (Early Wynn, Tom Seaver, Mickey Welch and Red Ruffing), one will be but is not eligible (Randy Johnson) and two have compelling cases (Jim Kaat and Tommy John). It is an impressive list, made more so that no pitcher has a similarity score higher than 880 with Glavine. Better players tend to be in a class by themselves, and Glavine is in the vicinity of that description.
 
8. Do the players number meet hall of fame standards?
 
Glavine scores a 52 on the hall of fame standards and 176 on the hall of fame monitor; the monitor marks him as an extremely likely hall of famer. Glavine's 7 best WAR seasons are a little short than most hall of fame pitchers, but still place him 66th all time at the position. Glavine was good for an exceptionally long time with several legitimately great seasons mixed in.
 
9. Is there evidence to suggest he was much better or worse than his statistics?
 
Chicks may dig the long ball, and Glavine was an above average hitting pitcher for his career. Glavine hit only 1 HR in his career, off John Smiley in 1995. He holds the record for most sacrifice bunts in a career by a pitcher (216) and drew over 100 walks.
 
Glavine's composure was legendary, and that is probably why I hated watching him pitch. He was a machine on the mound, getting ahead of hitters with well placed fastballs and then killing them with changeups that were driven into the ground. Glavine was not a soft tosser out there and he walked a lot of batters. This seems to be more of a function of Glavine refusing to give in. If a hitter did not want to hit Glavine's pitch, tough luck. It was rare to see Glavine make mistakes; between 1991 and 1998 Glavine gave up .5 HR/9. Maddux was the Bulldog, but once Glavine spotted the outside corner to right handed hitters he would never let it go.
 
10. Is he the best player eligible who has not been inducted?
 
 
 
 
 
I would argue no; he is not the best pitcher eligible who has not been inducted either.
 
11. How many Cy Young type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an Cy Young Award? If not, how often did he come close?
 
Glavine won two Cy Youngs (1991 and 1998) and finished second or third in the voting 4 times. In 1998, Kevin Brown was marginally better than Glavine. He was The Sporting News pitcher of the year in 1991 and 2000.
 
12. How many all star type seasons did he have? How many All Star teams did he play for? Did most other players selected to that many All Star games get elected to the Hall of Fame?
 
Glavine was named to 10 ASG; only four pitchers have appeared in more (Roger Clemens, Tom Seaver, Mariano Rivera and Warren Spahn). Spahn and Seaver are in the hall, Rivera will be and Clemens should be. Of the other four pitchers to appear in exactly 10 ASG, Whitey Ford, Juan Marichal and Steve Carlton are all in the hall of fame while Randy Johnson is not eligible.
 
13. If this man was the best player on his team, could his team win the pennant?
 
A team with Glavine as an ace would contend to make the postseason every year. A pennant? I don't know.
 
14. What impact did the player have on baseball history?
 
Glavine was one of the heads of perhaps the greatest rotation of all time. Generally, even when he was winning awards, he was somehow held in lesser esteem by the baseball writing public and fans than were Maddux and Smoltz. He was in many ways a throwback, as he stayed with the same team for many years and left only because of injury. The Braves refused to pick up his option following 2002 because of concerns over his shoulder. He and Maddux should be regarded as two of the preeminent "pitchers" of their era. These two men did their homework, played their game and tried to make you as a hitter come to them.
 
Glavine was also a player representative for the MLBPA . Following the strike in 1994 he was booed repeatedly in many locales. He was consistently criticized in the press in Atlanta and New York.
 
15. Did the player uphold the standards of the Hall of Fame?
 
Since his retirement, Glavine has been a very strong supporter of multiple causes, including Project Backpack (which as a teacher I fully endorse) and support for Katrina victims. He coaches little league baseball and hockey in the suburban Atlanta area.
 
Glavine is definitely a Hall of Famer. The quibbles that one can raise are what benefit did Glavine derive from being on the Atlanta Braves teams of the 1990s? Glavine was the 2nd or 3rd starter on those teams, and his peripherals are not equal to those of Maddux or Smoltz. While he would have been an ace on many other teams, he benefited from the offensive production of the Jones Boys, Dave Justice, Fred McGriff and others. Not to say that Maddux and Smoltz did not as well, but they did not give up as many hits as Glavine or walk as many batters. While Glavine was in many ways the third best pitcher on his team, this still made him one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last 25 years. For that, he should be in the hall of fame.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Saturday, December 28, 2013

The Keltner List: Fred McGriff

The next installment is one of the more overlooked players of the last 30 years, Fred McGriff. Thank you, Crime Dog, for a lot of good baseball and memories.

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball?

Not to my knowledge. He wound up being the best player in one of the worst trades in Yankee history: Dave Collins, McGriff and Mike Morgan to the Blue Jays for Tom Dodd and Dale Murray

2. Was he the best player on his team?

I don't think McGriff was the best player on his best teams; maybe the best hitter on the Blue Jays in the late 1980s, even with the three very good outfielders. I would tab Chipper Jones as the best player on the Braves teams of the mid to late 1990s. He was the best player on the Tampa Bay team from 1998-2001, even counting Wade Boggs

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

When McGriff became a full time first baseman, there was some stiff competition in the AL. Eddie Murray was still with Baltimore, Mattingly was in New York, Wally Joyner was there, Frank Thomas in Chicago. In short, McGriff in the late 1980s with Toronto was probably not the best first baseman in his league. By the mid 1990s, the steroid explosion had dimmed McGriff's offensive contributions. He was among the top five first baseman of the 1990s, but not the best. Jeff Bagwell was the best.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

For his career, McGriff posted a .917 OPS in the postseason. In 1995, McGriff had a slash line of .333/.415/.649 as the Braves won the World Series. 

He was also the point of two trade deadline deals.

1993: the Padres traded McGriff to the Braves for three players (including Melvin Nieves) and the Crime Dog responded with 19 HR  in 255 AB, leading the Braves to 50 wins in their last 68 games.

2001: the Cubs picked up McGriff for Manny Aybar. McGriff drove in 41 runs in 49 games but the Cubs tanked. 

In 1989, McGriff hit only .223 in September for a team that won 37 of its last 56 games. 

5. Was he good enough to contribute past his prime?

At age 38, McGriff had an OPS+ of 125 for the Cubs and parlayed that into a free agent deal with the Dodgers for 2003. He then went on the DL for the first time in his career in June with a groin injury. He also had a bad knee for most of that season. He signed with the Rays for 2004, but played only 27 games. McGriff was one of the most durable players of the 1990s, but when the end came it came fast. 

6. Is he the best player in history not in the hall of fame?

No, I would select Bonds, Tim Raines, Frank Thomas, Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio ahead of McGriff. 

7. Are most players with similar statistics in the Hall of Fame?

This is where things get a bit interesting. McGriff does not have a "truly similar" comp, with Willie McCovey (887) being the most similar. Three of McGriff's comps (McCovey, Willie Stargell and Billy Williams) are hall of famers. Two others (Bagwell and Frank Thomas) will be in the hall of fame at some point. Another, Gary Sheffield, will get consideration.

I think the best comp for McGriff is probably McCovey; both are tall, lean, lefty line drive hitters who were good for 25-35 HR every year. McCovey hit 521 HR, McGriff 493. McCovey played in the 1960s when it was a pitcher's paradise and consistently hit. McGriff played in the steroid era and consistently hit. The top two comps for McGriff (Stargell and McCovey) have roughly similar raw hitting statistics, but McGriff was not dominant like McCovey or Stargell. McGriff was consistently good for a period of 15 years in a very hard hitting era. Bagwell and Thomas were better. 

8. Do the players number meet hall of fame standards?

McGriff's stats suggest a likely hall of famer, but somewhat below average for the hall itself: 100 on the Hall of Fame monitor and 48 on the standards list. 

9. Is there evidence to suggest he was much better or worse than his statistics?

McGriff was durable: between 1988 and 2000, McGriff played 95% of his teams games. He was also remarakably consistent:

Home OPS: .885, Away OPS .887
First half SLG %: .502 Second Half: .518

He was not helped that much by Fulton County Stadium  in Atlanta, or Turner Field for that matter. His OPS of 77 at Turner Field is one of his lowest marks; only Dodger Stadium is lower as far as stadiums in which he played more than 50 games. McGriff's calling cards were durability and consistency. His hitting numbers are also damaged by the large home run totals of the steroid era, as McGriff's steady contribution of .284-32-102 looks small compared to the numerous 40 HR and 130 RBI seasons of other players. 

10. Is he the best player eligible who has not been inducted?

I would have to say no, as he probably is not the best first baseman who is eligible and has not been inducted. 

11. How many MVP type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP? If not, how often did he come close?

McGriff finished in the top 10 in MVP voting 4 times and never won the award. According to WAR, in 1989 he was the most productive hitter in the AL (6.7 WAR) but finished finished 6th. His teammate, George Bell, finished 4th......because he had 104 RBI to McGriff's 92. In 1993, McGriff finished 4th. I can't say that McGriff ever deserved an MVP award. 

He was awarded the silver slugger award in 1989, 1992-93. He is still the last NL player to lead the league with fewer than 40 HR, with 35 for the Padres in 1992. 

12. How many all star type seasons did he have? How many All Star teams did he play for? Did most other players selected to that many All Star games get elected to the Hall of Fame?

McGriff started three AS games and was selected for 5 total. He was the MVP of the 1994 game, as his bottom of the 9th 2 run HR off Lee Smith tied the game, eventually won on a Moises Alou double in the 10th. Only one hall of fame first baseman was selected 5 or fewer all star games, but Hank Greenberg was selected 5 times in 13 seasons and lost three full seasons and parts of two others to military service. Jeff Bagwell appeared in only 4 ASG, one blot on his hall resume. 

When McGriff made his best showing in the MVP vote, the AS 1B for the NL were Andres Galarraga, Gregg Jeffries and John Kruk

13. If this man was the best player on his team, could his team win the pennant?

No. 

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history

In a sign of the free agent times, McGriff is one of two players to hit 30 HR in a season for five different teams. He hit the first HR in the Skydome, and is one of the few players to lead both the NL and AL in HR during their careers. McGriff is one of the first "deadline deals" in the ESPN era to pan out, as the 1993 Braves needed a power hitting lefty and McGriff raked after the trade. He, more than any other player, made baseball in Tampa Bay respectable when he came home in 1998. 

Plus, Tom Emanski. No person of my age (40) can think of ESPN in the early 1990s without that damn commercial. 

15. Did the player uphold the standards of the Hall of Fame?

I should think so, as McGriff was never tainted by accusations of PEDs and outside the game is a large part of the Tampa community. 

The average career WAR for a hall of fame first baseman is 65.7. Fred McGriff is at 52.6, behind the following players: Will Clark, John Olerud, Frank Thomas, Jeff Bagwell, Todd Helton, Keith Hernandez. First base is a far over-represented position in the hall, but I do think that McGriff would certainly not shame the hall if he were inducted. 

The problem is the ballot that McGriff appears on. In his first year of eligibility, the other first timers to get enough votes to stay on were Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin and Edgar Martinez. The next year, Jeff Bagwell and Rafael Palmeiro showed up, joining McGriff and Mark McGwire in a very crowded field as first base. I would argue that 2012 was McGriff's year, and it was his highest vote percentage (23.9%) but the voters were still trying to decide what to do with the steroid era players. Add in the idea that Barry Larkin was the best candidate and you still had several first baseman/power hitters to vote on (Mattingly, Bagwell, Martinez, Murphy) and McGriff got lost in the shuffle. 

McGriff may get there, but it may take the Vets Committee to do it. He is worthy, just not as worthy as some of the other players at his position on the ballot. Voting for 10 players is rough, and picking two first baseman is a rougher job still.

Friday, December 20, 2013

The Keltner List: Edgar Martinez

I was lucky enough to move to the Northwest in time to see Edgar Martinez at the end of his career. I immediately realized the greatness of Dave Niehaus and to this day remain a closet Mariner fan, but would I vote for Martinez for the hall of fame?

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball?

Martinez suffers in this first and most difficult question in that he spent 1463 games of his career at DH. Martinez was a third baseman from 1989-1994 and a DH thereafter. He was considered the best DH in the AL in the late 1990s, but not the best player.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

One of the Great Questions of the Universe is this: "How did the Mariners NOT win a World Series between 1995 and 2001?" There are multiple reasons, the best being:

1. They could never find a left fielder. Ken Griffey and Jay Buhner were excellent at their spots. In left it was a revolving door featuring the likes of  Vince Coleman, Glenallen Hill, Rich Amaral, Stan Javier and Rickey Henderson.

I mean, Griffey left and Mike Cameron became Griffey-lite, Ichiro arrives like a tornado that spits line drives and the Mariners have a 116 win season with 8 players starting games in left field. Listen, I love Al Martin and was thrilled when he came up with the Pirates. But in 2001 he was 33 years old with bad legs and hit .240...for a team that won 116 games. 

2. The bullpen.

3. The Yankees and the Indians. 

That team had several great players (and yes, I would include Buhner on that list) and Martinez was a cornerstone. On a team with Griffey, Alex Rodriguez, Randy Johnson and Ichiro, Martinez was not considered the best player on the team. Following the 1995 season, though, Martinez was its soul. 

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

If the position is the DH, yes on both counts. There were DH's that hit more home runs, had gaudier numbers, but it the position is designated hitter. Outside of Albert Pujols, Edgar Martinez is the best right handed hitter I have ever seen. Even when he was old, it seemed like the line drives Martinez hit had extra. He was not a large man (6'0, 175-185 lbs) but his wrists were incredible. He was patient, and he hit gap shots in the Kingdome that would still be rolling if not for the wall. In 1992, and from 1995-2001, Martinez was the best DH in the AL, making him the best DH in baseball.  

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

Before 1995, the Mariners had two winning seasons in franchise history. On August 23rd, the Mariners were 11.5 games out of first with a record of 54-55. The Mariners won 20 of their last 29 games to tie with the Angels and force a playoff. The M's thumped Mark Langston 9-1 to go to the postseason. Martinez hit well in September (.308/.387/.505) and went 2-3 in the playoff. Gar probably kept the Mariners alive that season, as he won his first batting title. 

Then came the classic five game division series against the Yankees; Martinez was a machine and drove in 10 runs in five games. It is fitting that the best hitter for the Mariners (.571, 2 HR, .667 OBP) drive home the tying and winning runs with The Double in the 11th inning of game 5 to win the game for Randy Johnson, who pitched three innings of relief. This is still the most exciting play in Mariner history, and any Mariners fan can hear Dave Niehaus going absolutely beserk (I DON'T BELIEVE IT! IT JUST CONTINUES!).

Martinez hit poorly in the 1995 ALCS. In 1997, Martinez went 3-16 in the ALDS but two of those hits were HR. In the 2001 ALDS, Martinez broke a game 1 tie in the 10th inning of game one with a HR, setting the stage for a Mariners sweep.  In 1997, Martinez posted a 1.037 OPS in September and October as the M's won their division by six games after being tied on August 5th.

5. Was he good enough to contribute past his prime?

Martinez led the AL in RBIs at age 37 (somewhat a function of his team), was elected to his last all star team at age 40 and won a silver slugger award at DH that same year.  Martinez is a great case of a very good player waiting for the rest of his team. All of his 100 RBI seasons come after the age of 30. Of course, Martinez did not become a full time player until he was 27 years old. 

6. Is he the best player in history not in the hall of fame?

No. 

7. Are most players with similar statistics in the Hall of Fame?

Of Martinez top 10 comps, none are in the hall of fame. Many will get votes (Bernie Williams, Scott Rolen) some didn't do very well (Will Clark got 4.4% in 2006, Jon Olerud 0.7% in 2011). It is to be honest, not a very exciting list. Clark should have got more consideration than he did, in my opinion.

8. Do the players number meet hall of fame standards?

Martinez is at a 50 on hall of fame standards, right at the level of the average hall of famer. He is at 132 on the hall monitor, which is very respectable. His monitor score is the same as David Ortiz, who passed Martinez' record for RBIs from a DH in 2011. 

9. Is there evidence to suggest he was much better or worse than his statistics?

Martinez is a player who is hurt by having played in the steroid era. In 2000, Martinez hit a career high 37 HR; 4 of the players ahead of him on the leaderboard are known or suspected users of PEDs. Martinez was a line drive doubles hitter playing in a time that awarded and played to the long ball. Martinez was helped by playing in the Kingdome, and won his two batting titles there, with his OPS in the Kingdome being roughly 10% higher than his career mark. 

Looking at his splits, Martinez was consistent: .906 OPS on Grass, .967 on turf, .313 high leverage situations, .313 in medium and .309 in low leverage, a .900 OPS in every month of his career except April. .311 BA at home, .312 on the road. The man could just flat out hit. That sort of consistency for a period of years was lost in the scramble to new and greater HR totals in the 1990s and early 2000s.

Martinez was also a full time DH for 10 seasons, which in the minds of some voters does not make him a hall of famer. Paul Molitor was a full time DH for 8 seasons, and he is a hall of famer. Molitor played over 700 games at 3B as a league average player in the field. Martinez played 549 games at 3B as a slightly less than league average player, one who got to a lot of balls and made a lot of errors. 

10. Is he the best player eligible who has not been inducted?

I would argue no.

11. How many MVP type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP Award? If not, how often did he come close?

Martinez never won an MVP an finished in the top 10 twice and in the top 20 three other times. He was the silver slugger recipient four times, once at 3B and three times at DH.

In 1995, Martinez finished third behind Mo Vaughn and Albert Belle. Both Belle and Martinez were more deserving than Vaughn. Martinez had more doubles (52-28), won the batting title, led the league in OBP and OPS, scored more runs (121-98) and had more hits in 40 fewer at bats. Oh yeah, he also struck out 63 fewer times than Vaughn. However, Belle hit 50 HR and Vaughn played in Boston.

12. How many all star type seasons did he have? How many All Star teams did he play for? Did most other players selected to that many All Star games get elected to the Hall of Fame?

Martinez made the all star team 7 times, starting at DH four times. In 1999, he was kept off by Rafael Palmeiro but wrecked havoc on the AL in the second half of the season to the tune of a 1.015 OPS. Seven is a respectable number for a hall of fame player, and four starts is the same amount as Craig Biggio, Jim Rice, Dave Parker and Ron Santo

13.If this man was the best player on his team, could his team win the pennant?

The team would contend, I think. I don't think it would win. I REALLY would love to see a 1995 Martinez on one of Whitey Herzog's teams. That would be absolutely outrageous; Coleman on second, McGee on first and here is Martinez, one of the best gap hitters in baseball. I sense a Strat-o-Matic season coming on!

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history?

Martinez is the most beloved man ever to play for the Seattle Mariners; grown men cry when they speak of Papi.  That 1995 Mariner team solidified the place of  major league baseball in the Pacific Northwest. For years before that season, there were people who argued that MLB could not survive in Seattle. The late Dave Niehaus mentions this on the youtube video of his 10 Best Mariner Memories.  He was a key contributor to the team with the most regular season wins in baseball history. 

15. Did the player uphold the standards of the Hall of Fame?

While Alvin Davis is "Mr. Mariner", Martinez was and is a steady contributor to the Seattle community. His charity work earned him the 2004 Roberto Clemente Award. 

I would vote for Martinez. He played clean, was a great citizen and a wonderful hitter.  He may not have the false qualifier of 500 HR, but his career adjusted OPS of 147 is tied with four hall of famers and is in the top 45 marks of all time. A career mark of that level is excellent. His production was done at a time of very high offensive output, but the adjusted OPS mark does not lie. I would think that Martinez, with good eyes, quick wrists and the ability to spray line drives into the gaps could be marked down for a .295 average, 35-45 doubles and 15-20 HR every year in any decade since 1920 (with some time out in the 1960s). Before the DH, Martinez would have been hidden away at first or third and been allowed to hit the crap out of everything for 10-12 years before the pitchers mutinied. 

Martinez suffers from the Seattle management. He spent parts of four seasons in triple AAA, playing 276 games and hitting .344 with an OPS of.944. He struck out 108 times in 950 AB and drew 182 walks. In 1986, Jim Presley had his best year as a Mariner (.265, 27 HR, 107 RBI) and for the next two seasons the Seattle management waited around for him to do it again. He did hit 24 HR in 1987, but that power came with an OBP south of .300 with 157 Ks. In 1988, Presley had an OPS of .635.  In 1989, Presley sank to 12 HR, 21 BB in 390 AB and an OBP of .275. This is the man who kept Martinez off third base for two seasons. To be fair, in 65 games in '89 Martinez was at best average. And in 1989, Martinez was overshadowed by the 19 year old Ken Griffey Jr and Buhner. That is the story of Gar's career; outside of Seattle, he was overshadowed by The Kid, Bone, The Big Unit and Ichiro. He was a great player, for all that. 

Monday, December 16, 2013

The Keltner List: Roger Clemens 1984-1997

Just as with Barry Bonds, Rafael Palmeiro, and Mark McGwire, Roger Clemens is one of the poster children for the steroid era that appear on the ballot for the Hall of Fame this year. For Bonds, I dropped every season from his career after he was suspected of being on the juice and sent him through the list developed by Bill James.

I will now do this for Clemens, going on the assumption that Brian McNamee's statements are correct. Regardless of Clemens being found not guilty of obstruction of justice in 2012, the assumption of steroid use clouds Clemens after 1998. The big issue for many people is that these players cheated to enhance their already gaudy numbers and a good number of baseball records were broken because of it; because of this, they are not hall of famers and should not be elected. This is misguided. In the absence of any solid statistical formula to determine to what effect the PEDs enhanced performance one cannot throw out the whole career of the player in question. We as a community know something happened, but what effect that had on the raw statistical measurements of the players in question leaves us to measure a player's candidacy based on those seasons wherein people can reasonably assume he was clean. Following McNamee's turgid testimony, I will consider Clemens candidacy using the seasons before 1998. 

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball?

It can be argued that Clemens was considered one of, if not the, top pitchers in baseball.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

In the late 1980s, it was either he or Wade Boggs. If you picked a player to build a team around from those two, it would have been Clemens without doubt. From 1986-1990, Clemens looked like the second coming of Nolan Ryan, but with more wins.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?
Between 1986 and 1992, Clemens was the best pitcher in the American League year in and year out. He led the league in wins twice, ERA four times, strikeouts twice and SO/BB ratio four times. Clemens posted an ERA over the league average in 1984, and then never did so again. I would go as far as to say that Clemens was the best pitcher in baseball during that period. Orel Hershiser may have been better in 1988, and Eckersley got a lot of attention, but Clemens was the best pitcher in baseball before Greg Maddux took the mantle. 

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

The Red Sox made the playoffs in 1986, 1988, 1990 and 1995. For lesser pitchers, Clemens performance in 9 post season games (1-2, 3.88 ERA, 1.221 WHIP) was average to above average. In 1988, Clemens pitched six solid innings against the A's, then gave up a 3 run homer in the 7th for a no-decision.
 
In 1986, Clemens went 4-0 in September and October. In 1988, Clemens was 15-5 at the end of July. He then lost five straight decisions (with an ERA of 7.33) but came back to pitch pretty well in September as the Sox held on. In 1990, the Sox finished 2 games ahead of the Blue Jays, and Clemens won all six starts he made in August, including a 1-0 shutout of the Jays on August 25th. Going into a three games series beginning September 28th, the Sox won two of three against the Jays with Clemens winning his first start in three weeks.....the real reason was Tom Brunansky's four HR in two games, including a game winner in the 12th inning on the 28th. 

5. Was he good enough to contribute past his prime?

Clemens won his 4th Cy Young Award at age 34 in his first year with the Blue Jays. I would answer yes to this question.

6. Is he the best player in history not in the hall of fame?

No, but he and Maddux are the best pitchers not in the hall of fame. 

7. Are most players with similar statistics in the Hall of Fame?

After his age 34 season in 1997, Clemens had 10 pitchers with a similarity score over 870. Five are in the Hall, 3 (Pedro Martinez, Maddux, Tom Glavine) will be, one was a good professional pitcher (Bob Welch) and the last had his career destroyed by drugs (Dwight Gooden). That is damn good company for any pitcher. Clemens' closest comps, all with a score over 900 are Tom Seaver, Bob Gibson, Juan Marichal and Gooden.

8. Do the players number meet hall of fame standards? 

Here are Clemens' stats from 1984-1997:
W-L
G
GS
CG
SHO
IP
H
ER
BB
SO
SO/9
ERA
213-118
417
416
109
41
3040
2563
1003
924
2882
8.53
2.97

For BBRef's hall of fame standards, Clemens scores 56.85, rounded up to 57. This places him even with Gaylord Perry, Juan Marichal and ahead of pitchers such as Jim Palmer, Whitey Ford and Fergie Jenkins. The only pitchers in history over that 57 mark that are not in the Hall of Fame are Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson, but nether of them are yet eligible for election.

On the hall of fame monitor he scores a 162, with 100 being an average hall of famer and over 130 being a likely hall of famer.

9. Is there evidence to suggest he was much better or worse than his statistics?

The one thing I would point out about Clemens is his walk rates. For someone who piled up K's, Clemens had excellent SO/BB rates. In 1988, Clemens struck out 291 hitters but walked only 62. This allowed the younger Clemens to go very deep in games quite often, leading the league in shutouts five times between 1984 and 1997 and complete games three times. Clemens did not give up a lot of hits and you could not wait for him to get wild; he just wouldn't. 

Along those lines, it is interesting that Clemens' rate of BB/9 was substantially higher after 1996:

Pre 1996: 750 BB in 2533+ IP =2.66 BB
Post 1996: 830 BB in 2383+ IP = 3.13 BB

What this means, I do not know. 

10. Is he the best player eligible who has not been inducted

I would still pick Bonds here, and I would also pick Maddux over the 1984-97 Clemens.

11. How many Cy Young type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an Cy Young Award? If not, how often did he come close?

Clemens won CYAs in 1986,1987, 1991 and 1997. He was second to Bob Welch's fluke 27 wins in 1990 but was a demonstrably better pitcher and should have won the award. Clemens finished third in the vote in 1992 as Eckersley saved 51 games. Eck, Clemens and Mike Mussina would have been excellent choices that year. In other words, if Welch doesn't have a career year for a very good team in 1990, Clemens wins four CYA in six years. That is Maddux and Koufax territory. 

Clemens was the AL MVP in 1986 and finished in the top 10 in the voting three times. 

12. How many all star type seasons did he have? How many All Star teams did he play for? Did most other players selected to that many All Star games get elected to the Hall of Fame?

Clemens made six all star appearances between 1984 and 1997 and started the 1986 game. He did not make the team in 1987 but won the CYA. He was 12-3 after the all star break. He was the MVP of the 1986 ASG.

13. If this man was the best player on his team, could his team win the pennant?

If he is the ace of the staff and the best player on the team, I should think so. 

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history?

Clemens struck out 20 hitters in a game twice and remains the only pitcher to accomplish this feat. In 1986, he won his first 14 decisions and no one has done that since. 

15. Did the player uphold the standards of the Hall of Fame?

On Oct 10, 1990 Clemens was ejected from game four of the ALCS after walking Willie Randolph in the second inning. On the mound, Clemens was always feisty and exhibited poor judgment at times, even before the Piazza incidents. His off field problems are not limited to suspected PED use, as there is evidence of quite a few extra-marital affairs, including a sleazy attachment of some sort to an underage country singer.

I would be hard pressed to not vote for Clemens for the Hall of Fame, based on his performance pre-1998. Post 1998, I would be hesitant to vote for him not because of the suspected PEDs but for the constant bending over by the Astros and Yankees to appease Clemens' ego and his off the field activities with multiple women. I'm prudish like that; Clemens just oozes sleaze. In any case, discount post-1998 stuff and he is still a hall of famer. Doesn't mean you have to like the guy. Bonds and Clemens are quite instructive in what makes the great players great. They have ability, vast ego and a lot of drive. This makes them successful, disliked and willing to push themselves through whatever means available. Again, unless there is some statistical analysis that quantifies the effects of PEDs on baseball coupled with a concrete list of those who used the stuff, baseball is in a black hole of craziness of its own making.

To me, what separates Clemens and Bonds as hall of fame players is dominance. Did their egos or whatever or just crummy decision making drive them to do PEDs? Did the idea of having a lot of fringe players hit home runs piss them off? Who knows? They were dominant players before the PED use (if there was, in the case of Clemens); judge them on that. Was Sammy Sosa in 1992 or 1994 one tenth the player that Bonds was? Absolutely not. Was Clemens the best pitcher in baseball for a period of almost six years? Absolutely. Vote for them based on what was clean, or develop some way to normalize the numbers.