Thursday, November 28, 2013

The Keltner List: Moises Alou

Happy Thanksgiving and Happy Chanukah, everyone! Today I will knock out the last of the maybe players on the ballot for next year by looking at the career of Moises Alou.

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball?

Again, not to my knowledge. Alou was consistently regarded as a very good player but not the best in baseball.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

An interesting one for Alou. On a personal note, I wanted him to stay with the Pirates in 1990, but he helped get Zane Smith and the Pirates had some guys named Bonds, Van Slyke and Bonilla in the outfield.

Montreal 1990-96: The 1994 Expos were one of the great "what if" teams. This coincided with Alou's first big year (.339/.397/.592) as he led the team in HR and finished third in the MVP voting. Larry Walker, Marquis Grissom and Alou were a very strong outfield trio. Walker and Grissom were gone after 1994, leaving Alou as the best player on the team. Yes, even better than Henry Gonzalez. I don't know if he was considered a better player than Walker or Grissom; at the time, I would have probably taken Grissom over Alou.

1997 Florida: For the World Series champs, I would probably pick Charles Johnson, but Alou is in the discussion

1998-2001: Houston: I Would still take Bagwell.

Chicago 2002-04: You probably have to go with Sosa on this one, even though Sammy could no longer run very well or play defense very well.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

Like Luis Gonzalez, Alou suffers by being a direct contemporary with Barry Bonds. This is the reason he wound up with the Expos. He was most likely the second best LF for several years in the NL in the 1990s, making him one of the top five or six at his position at the time. He was certainly better than Gonzalez.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

Alou hit very well in the 1997 World Series and crushed the ball in the 2003 playoffs (.387, 2 HR, 8 RBI .551 SLG in 12 games). Alou did not produce much in September 2003 in a race in which the Cubs finished one game ahead of the Astros. In a crucial four game series in August, Alou collected four hits, including a go ahead 5th inning HR of Dan Miceli on the 13th which gave the Cubs a 6-4 lead that Joe Borowski (!) and the bullpen held. Against the Astros, Alou hit very well that season with 15 RBI in 16 games and an OPS of .962.

In 1997, Alou started off September with an 8 game hitting streak (.464/.516/.679) as the Marlins fought successfully for a wild card spot.

In 2007, Alou injured his quad with the Mets at a 22-13 record. He returned to action on July 27th, The Mets went 35-31 without him. In September, Alou fashioned a 30 game hitting streak (.423/.451/.649) but the Mets continually let games slip away and went .500 for the month, finishing a game behind the Phillies. Alou hit .437 against the Phillies for the season, including a 5-12 performance in the only series that the Mets had with the Phillies in September.

5. Was he a good enough player that he could contribute past his prime?

Absolutely. As a 40 year old, Alou had a 30 game hit streak. He was a two time all star after age 35.

6. Is he the best player in baseball history not in the hall of fame?

No. I would again go with Barry Bonds.

7. Are most players with similar statistics in the hall of fame?

Only one of Alou's comps is in the Hall of Fame. Chuck Klein won the 1932 NL MVP with the Phillies and led he league in HR 4 times. Strangely enough, Klein won the MVP the season before he won the Triple Crown.

Of the rest, Magglio Ordonez, Shawn Green, Lance Berkman and Paul O'Neill are not eligible. Fred Lynn received less than 6% of the vote when he appeared on the ballot (which strikes me as silly). Indian Bob Johnson received less than 1% in both his two years (1952-53, which strikes me as O.K.).

8. Do the players numbers meet hall of fame standards?

Alou never led the league in a batting category. For "grey ink" appearances (top 10), Alou posts 64 appearances, while the average hall of famer nets 144. For Hall of Fame standards, Alou is at 44 with a likely hall of famer at 50. Alou finished with a .301 batting average and 332 HR. Over a 162 game period, his average offensive output was .303/.369/.516 with 28 HR and 107 RBI. This in a career conducted during the high offensive level 1990s and 2000s.

Alou did miss two full seasons with injuries (1991 and 1999) along with parts of several others.

9. Is there evidence to suggest that Alou was much better or worse than his statistics suggest?

Alou's horrific broken ankle in 1991 took away a lot of his speed. From 1988-90 he stole 20 bases a year in the minors. It also cost him on defense. Alou seemed to have a huge amount of respect from his fellow players and from broadcasters. He probably would have been a different player if not for the ankle; I cannot say better or worse, but adding a dimension of speed to his game in the 1990s is intriguing to say the least.

10. Is he the best player eligible who has not been inducted?

No, as that would again be Bonds.

11. How many MVP type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, How many times did he come close?

Alou never won an MVP award but finished in the top three in voting twice (1994 and 1998), the top 10 in 1997 and the top 15 in 2001 and 2004.  In 1994, Bagwell was the runaway (and legit) winner. He was second in the voting for Rookie of the Year in 1992 to Eric Karros. Had Alou not missed some of the season due to his ankle, he probably would have won the award. He picked up Silver Slugger awards in 1994 and 1998.

12. How many all star type seasons did he have? How many All Star teams did he play for? Did most other players selected to that many All Star games get elected to the Hall of Fame?

Alou made 6 All Star teams. Of his comps, Lynn made 9, Reggie Smith and Indian Bob Johnson 7 each. Alou never started an all star game but notched the game winning hit in 1994.

13. If this man was the best player on his team, could that team conceivably win the pennant?

I am inclined to say no, but it would be a contender.

14.What impact did the player have on baseball history?

Alou was a central player in the "Bartman Incident" during the 2003 playoffs.  Steve Bartman, attempting to catch a foul pop fly down the left field line in Wrigley and chaos ensued as Alu reached up to catch the ball. At first Alou claimed that he could not have caught the foul fly anyway, but then in 2008 he changed his story. In any event, the Bartman play is what is remembered, not Alex Gonzalez's inexplicable error on a double play ball earlier in the inning. The Bartman story is best looked at in the great ESPN 30 for 30 documentary "Catching Hell."

Alou was also conspicuous as one of the last players not to wear batting gloves. On Slate.com in 2004, Alou was listed as urinating on his hands during the season to toughen up his skin.

15.Did the player uphold the standards of the hall of fame?

As far as I know he did. Alou is untainted by the steroids scandal and was always seen as a respectful and respected clubhouse presence.

I don't think Alou is a hall of fame player. His case would have been MUCH stronger had he not missed two seasons to injury, but I cannot count that. He was a fine player (and for two or three years a great one) but not a hall of famer.

 

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

The Keltner List: Luis Gonzalez

Today I will put Luis Gonzalez through Bill James' Keltner List, named for the Indians third baseman Ken Keltner.

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody suggest, while he was active, that he was the best player in baseball?
Not to my knowledge. Does anybody know anything about this?

2. Was he the best player on his team?

Gonzalez got around. Houston (1990-1995, 1997), the Cubs (1995-96), Detroit (1998), Arizona (1999-2006) Dodgers (2007) and Florida (2008). He was not the best player on the Astros (Biggio and Bagwell were better), he was average with the Cubs

It was not until Gonzalez reached Arizona that he truly began to put up numbers. Between 1999 and 2003, Gonzalez posted 100 RBIs or more every year, adjusted OPS of over 130 and drew 100 walks for the only time in his career in 2001. As far as position players on those teams, I will give Steve Finley the edge in 1999 and 2000, who posted similar (if not better) offensive numbers while playing CF. Gonzalez was probably the best position player on his team in 2001.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

The answer to both of those questions is no. Gonzalez is a direct contemporary of Barry Bonds. In 2001, Bonds hit 73 HR and won the MVP. In 1999, Gonzalez put together a great year and was likely the best LF in the NL that season, but one year does not make this answer a yes.

4. Was he a good enough player to play regularly past his prime?

His last all star season was in 2005 at age 37, and he cranked out 52 doubles at age 38. Gonzalez was aided a bit by Bank One, and was something of a late bloomer besides. His first 20 HR season was with the Tigers at age 30, but that was more a result of plate discipline than anything else. Gonzalez was productive enough, but I get the feeling that he 668 plate appearances in 2006 had more to do with Gonzalez's durability and lack of options on the part of the DBacks.

5. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

Gonzalez did notch the base hit that won the 2001 World Series off of Mariano Rivera. In games 6-7 that year, he went 3-9 with 3 RBI. In 1997, Gonzalez struggled in August (.163/.272/.184) as the Astros held on to finish first in the NL Central. In 1999, Gonzalez was a one man wrecking crew against the NL West, hitting .370 with 8 HR and 35 RBI against divisional foes.

The '99 DBacks won 51 of their last 68 games; in that period Gonzalez hit 11 of his HR and put together hit streaks of 9, 16 and 12 games.

In 2001, Gonzalez smacked 14 HR in the last 47 games of the season after the Diamondbacks moved into first place. In 6 games against the 2nd place Giants during that span, Gonzalez was 8-20 with 2 HR, 6 RBI and 6 BB in 6 games. He was intentionally walked twice.

6. Is he the best player in history not in the hall of fame?

No; there are multiple position players, including some of Gonzalez's comps, that I would vote for before Gonzalez.

7. Are most players with comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame?

There are some very interesting comps for Gonzalez. At the top of the list are Dave Parker and Dwight Evans (both RF from the 1970s known for good defense and batting eyes), Billy Williams and Bobby Abreu are next, followed by Tony Perez (!), Chili Davis, Harold Baines, Rusty Staub, Carlos Beltran and Andre Dawson.

In my mind, Evans and Parker are not true comps; the stats look similar, but Parker was 3 inches taller and close to 40 pounds heavier than Gonzalez, had a much better arm. Parker also played in an era where his 32 2B, 8 3B and 22 HR per year look a lot better than Gonzalez in 1995-1999. Parker also won two batting titles in that span and an MVP award. Evans drew many more walks than Gonzalez and is considered by most (even outside of Boston) to have been a better player.

Williams is an interesting one, but again he was a demonstrably better player than Gonzalez. In 1999, Gonzalez hit .336 and burst out as a star for the Diamondbacks. The NL as a league hit .268 with a .427 SLG percentage that year. In 1964, the first year Williams cracked 30 HR, the NL hit .254 as a league and slugged .354. While Williams posted five different seasons with a Wins-Above-Replacement value of 5, Gonzalez did it three times in a hitting atmosphere much more favorable. While Williams, Perez and Dawson are hall of famers, and Parker and Evans deserve a lot of consideration, their careers took place in a much different time than the late 1990s and early 2000s.


8. Do the players numbers meet hall of fame standards?

Gonzalez scores a 48, just shy of the 50 of an average hall of famer. He has a black ink (league leader) score of 5, well short of the average of 27 of a hall of famer. His HoF Monitor score is 103, slightly above the 100 average. Gonzalez was a productive player to be sure, just not a great one.

9. Is there evidence to suggest that Gonzalez was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

Here is an interesting theory: Gonzalez is a test case for what the BBWOA will do with the Steroid Era. Gonzalez was not implicated in any way in the Mitchell Report, but his 2001 season (57 HR, 142 RBI) raised eyebrows. In 2009 a site called "RotoInfo" printed the supposed list of the 103 players who tested positive and Gonzalez appeared; the veracity of this list is more than an open question. In 2006, Gonzalez himself denied using steroids, which I am inclined to believe. That may not amount to a hill of beans in this crazy world, but there it is.

I would argue that Gonzalez got better as expected during his career, and as such should serve as a baseline. Until he was 26, Gonzalez was a talented ball player, good for 25-30 doubles, 10-15 HR and good defense in left field each year. Starting in 1993, he began to draw walks and cut down on strikeouts and developed by 1998 into an excellent hitter. The power came as he got older, which is to be expected. Gonzalez went from a speedy player with doubles power in his early to mid twenties to a patient slugger in his early 30s

While his 2001 season is an incredible fluke, it has everything to do with a competent professional hitter taking advantage of a powerful lineup with a switch in approach. If Gonzalez is discounted by the voters and ascribed as a "one year wonder" they are ignoring the 8 seasons  when Gonzalez had an OPS over 100, three 20+ HR seasons and six 40+ 2B seasons before 2001 . Gonzalez was a good major league ballplayer, and took advantage of his surroundings to be a holy terror for a few years.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the hall of fame but not inducted?

No. That would be Barry Bonds.

11. How many MVP type seasons did the player have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times did he come close?

Gonzalez never won an MVP award (in 2001 he finished third to Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds, again raising an interesting steroid barroom argument). He finished in the top 25 in voting two other seasons. He never really came close.

12. How many All-Star type seasons did he have? how many all star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played this many go to the hall of fame?

Gonzalez was a five time all star who made four starts. He probably deserved consideration in 2000 and perhaps in 1993. Most Hall of Famers played in more than five all star games.

13. If this man were the best on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

I would argue no. I am not sure if it would contend for a pennant.

14. What impact did this player have on the game? Was he responsible for any rule changes?

Not to my knowledge.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of the hall of fame?

Gonzalez is active in the work of the Baseball Assistance Team, a charitable organization that provides financial assistance for former major and minor league players and umpires. He was by far the most popular player on the Diamondbacks squad and is active in Arizona politics. I would say that he certainly meets this standard.

Overall, Gonzalez was a good player, great for a few years. He also got to live every man's dream by getting the winning hit in Game 7 of the World Series of the best closer in the history of the universe. That is a great career, but I am not convinced that Gonzalez is a hall of famer. In any case, a player would be happy to have had 1/3 the career that Gonzalez did. Plus, he made my brother and nephew (Diamondbacks fans) very happy and provided us all with good baseball for a lot of years. For that,
Gonzo, I thank you

 

Thursday, November 21, 2013

The Keltner List: Mike Mussina

Today I continue the Keltner List observations with the Moose, Mike Mussina.

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, suggest that he was he best player in baseball?

To my limited knowledge, no one ever put forward Mike Mussina as the best player in the game.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

 Mussina was the best pitcher on his team in multiple seasons: 1992 in Baltimore (18-5, 4 Shutouts), 1995-97 Baltimore, 2001 and 2003 with the Yankees.  In 2001 with the Yankees, Clemens was probably the best on the team. In 2003, Mussina or Mariano Rivera were the best. So, certainly, for six seasons of his career Mussina was one of the best players on his team.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

Mussina suffers because his career is a close parallel to Greg Maddux, one of the 10 best pitchers of all time. In 1992, Dennis Eckersley won the AL Cy Young Award over Mussina and Clemens. I am not sure that Mussina or Clemens were more deserving that year. Both won 18 games, both finished with a WHIP of close to 1.000. Jack McDowell won 20 games but his peripherals were not the equal of Clemens. After 1992, Mussina has several seasons where he was one of the best three or four pitchers in the American League, but was he ever considered to be one of the best pitchers in baseball? In the early 1990s, perhaps. In New York, it is arguable that he was not the best pitcher on his team thanks to the "reborn" Roger Clemens.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

In 1997, Mussina tossed 29 innings in the post season and struck out 41 hitters, giving up only 11 hits. That is the very definition of dominant. The problem was that the Orioles could not score runs. Mussina in the ALCS that year did not get a decision, both games went extra innings and were lost by the Baltimore bullpen.

In 1996, Mussina went 7-3 in August and September for an Orioles team that won the wild card by three games.
In 2001, Mussina went 4-0 down the stretch for a Yankee team that won their division by 14 games. In 2002, Mussina won 2 of his last 6 starts, but posted a 1.48 ERA and 46 Ks in 42 2/3 innings.

For the Yankees in the postseason, Mussina was 5-6 with a 3.88 ERA in 17 starts. He always upped his strikeout rate in the postseason with a robust 152 Ks in 139 2/3 postseason innings.

5. Was he a good enough player that he could contribute past his prime?

Mussina lost 10 games only once after the age of 34. After 2003, Mussina posted an ERA higher than the league twice (2004 and 2007). 2007 was a season where he had lost velocity, but in 2008 he bounced back to post his lowest ERA since 2001. Mussina was somewhat durable, making 30 starts or more 12 times in 18 seasons.

6. Is he the best player in baseball history not in the hall of fame?

No. He is not the best pitcher eligible who is in the hall of fame. That would be Greg Maddux.

7. Are most players with comparable statistics in the hall of fame?

Similar Pitchers  (from baseball-reference.com)
  1. Andy Pettitte (912)
  2. Juan Marichal (866) *
  3. David Wells (863)
  4. Curt Schilling (860)
  5. Jim Palmer (855) *
  6. Carl Hubbell (855) *
  7. Kevin Brown (844)
  8. Jack Morris (838)
  9. Clark Griffith (831) *
  10. CC Sabathia (826)
* - Signifies Hall of Famer
According to James' dictum, no one is unusually similar to Mussina. Pettite is "truly similar" (over 900) while Hubbell, Palmer, Schilling, Wells and Marichal are "essentially similar." Of the top six, three are hall of famers and three are not yet eligible.

From a pitching standpoint, only Palmer and Schilling are closely similar to Mussina, even though Palmer featured a high fastball and Mussina a four seamer with a knuckle curve.

8. Do the players numbers meet hall of fame standards?

With a score of 54, Mussina's numbers certainly meet hall of fame standards. The hall of fame monitor for Mussina is at 121, where 100 is a "likely" hall of famer. Either way, Mussina's numbers are worthy.

9. Is there evidence to suggest that the player was much better or worse than his statistics suggest?

Mussina won 15 or more games 11 times in his career but led the league in wins only once. Mussina was a consistent pitcher who put up WAR numbers in the All Star range 10 times in 18 seasons. I would consider Mussina better than he appears in the numbers because of consistency; he had a losing record twice in 18 years.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is not inducted?

No. That would be Greg Maddux or Roger Clemens. I would vote for Maddux because of the steroid clouds surrounding Clemens.

11.   How many MVP type seasons did the player have? Did he win an MVP? How many times did he come close?

Surprisingly, Mussina never won a Cy Young award. He did finish in the top five in the voting six times, and in the top six nine times. In 1999 Mussina finished second to the 23 game winner Pedro Martinez. But, for a pitcher to finish in the top six in cy young voting for half of the years he was active is quite an accomplishment.

12. How many All Star type season did he have? How many All Star teams did he play for? Did most of the other players elected to that many games go into the hall of fame?

Mussina made 5 all star teams and pitched in three games, starting none. He won 20 games in 2008 (his final season) and did not make the All Star team. In 1995 he led the AL in wins with 19 and did not make the All Star team. Phil Neikro and Gaylord Perry made five all star games as pitchers since the All Star game began back in the 1930s. Mussina compares well, but is not a 300 game winner like Niekro and Perry.

13. If this man was the best player on his team, would that team likely win the pennant?

With Mussina as an ace, any team would be a contender for a division title. For a pennant, however, that is not as clear.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history?
Mussina brought back the "knuckle curve" and threw the kitchen sink by 2008. The Neyer/James Book of Pitchers quotes a Joe Morgan and Jon Miller ESPN broadcast that Mussina brought on a slider in 2003. Back in the 1930s and 1940s, most pitchers would use multiple pitches, not relying on two or three, but sprinkling in more than four. Mussina is a throwback, and will most likely be one of the last pitchers to successfully employ a knuckle curve.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of the hall of fame?

To my knowledge, Mussina did just that. He raised some hackles in 2006 when he said that he matched to several hall of famers, but it is no sin to be honest. Mussina won seven gold gloves as well, and electing him would not be a blight on the hall by any stretch. Maddux and Glavine and Smoltz should go in first, but Mussina would be a worthy selection.
 

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

First Year Players on the Ballot

Today I will look at several of the first year players on the Hall of Fame ballot and whether or not they have a chance to get in. Some have a chance to get votes. The "maybe" players will get their own post. However, all had good careers. This is a fun exercise for me, as these are many of the players that I got to see play when I first started going to major league (and minor league) games in the 1980s and early 1990s.

The "Yes Men":
Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas, Tom Glavine

The "Maybes":
Mike Mussina, Jeff Kent, Luis Gonzalez, Moises Alou

The "We'll Get Votes" Crowd:

Todd Jones: the closer gifted with a great changeup, Jones saved 40 games twice in his career (2000 and 2005). In a 16 year career, Jones made one all star game and finished fifth in the Cy Yong voting in 2000. He is also one great writer.

J.T. Snow: Snow was a six time gold glove winner at first. His best years (1997-2003) saw him as a good source of left handed power and one of the key elements of some very good Giants teams. Snow also won the Willie Mac Award, voted on by team members and coaches for leadership and positive influences on the SF community, twice.

Richie Sexson: Sexson was a tall, thin first baseman with enormous holes in his swing. If he hit the ball, it would go very, very far. Two time all star for the Brewers, then brought to Seattle replace John Olerud. Sexson produced 39 HR, 121 RBI and 167 K's in 2005 but back problems ate him up.

Eric Gagne: In 2004, Eric Gagne was the best closer in baseball. Between 1999 and 2004 he saved 152 games and struck out 604 batters in only 530 innings. His changeup was described as "unfair" and "a pitch that should not exist." After elbow and back surgeries in 2005 and 2006, he was never the same. One of the major players named in the Mitchell Report for use of HGH.

Hideo Nomo: "The Tornado" was a fantastic pitcher when he first got to the Dodgers, featuring a devastating split finger fastball. The thing disappeared, for God's sake. Nomo led the NL in strikeouts as a rookie in 1995 and then led the AL in 2001. He only made one all star game; however his 1996 and 2002 campaigns were of an all star caliber. Nomo won 123 games in the United States, 78 in Japan and threw two no hitters.

Kenny Rogers: few remember (at least I didn't) that Rogers was a relief pitcher for the first four years of his career and led the AL in appearances in 1992. The idea that he led the AL in starts for the Rangers in 2004 is a bit weird. Rogers always seemed to win wherever he went, posting 15 win seasons 5 times in 16 years as a starter with the Rangers, A's and Tigers. He also won a World Series in 1996 with the Yankees.

Ray Durham: A 5'8 second baseman, Durham had good gap power and would toss in 10-15 HR a year for good measure. He was a skilled leadoff man who until he turned 30 scored 100 runs and stole 30 bases a season for the White Sox. Two time all star.

The "We Played" crowd:

Shannon Stewart: Stewart never made an all star team, but he did finish 4th in the MVP voting in 2003 (.307-13-73).

Esteban Loaiza and Jon Lieber: Loaiza won 20 games in 2003 with the White Sox and lead the AL in strikeouts. He played for 8 teams in his career and won 10 games in a season for four of them. He actually tied for the NL lead in games started as a rookie in 1995 for the Pirates. Speaking of that team, the starters were Loaiza, Denny Neagle, Paul Wagner, Steve Parris, John Ericks and Jon Lieber. In 1998, the Pirates traded Lieber straight up for Brant Brown. The result? Over the next four years Lieber won 48 games for the Cubs, including 20 in 2001 and made an all star team. Brant Brown hit 16 HR for the Pirates in 1999...but struck out 114 times in 381 AB and was traded to the Marlins for Bruce Aven.

Geoff Jenkins: Jenkins was an All Star for Milwaukee in 2003 and a solid left fielder who hit 20 HR every year.

Armando Benitez: Benitez was tall and filled out later in his career. He threw a very hard, moving fastball.  Benitez had trouble in the post-season, blowing two saves for the Orioles against the Indians in the 1997 ALCS and then blowing game one of the 2000 World Series. The man did, however, save 289 games. He also won the 2001 Rolaids Relief Man award and made two all star teams.

Jose Vidro: In 2004, Vidro was 29 years old, a three time all star and 2003 silver slugger at second base for the Expos. In his first 8 seasons he hit 101 HR and notched 30 or more doubles five times. In 2005, Vidro suffered injuries to his right knee and was never the same, finishing up as a DH with the Mariners.

 
 

The Keltner List: Tim Raines

The next installment focuses on Tim Raines, who received a 52.2% vote in 2013. This is his 7th year on the ballot. Raines was a dangerous switch hitter for the Expos in the 1980s and for the White Sox and Yankees in the 1990s.


1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, suggest that he was the best player in baseball?
In 1988, Bill James concluded that Raines was the second best player in baseball outside of Wade Boggs. Tom Tango rates him as the best leadoff hitter in the National League during the 1980s. I do not know that anyone tagged Raines as the best player in baseball, but he was in the discussion for the top five or ten during the height of his career.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

Raines became a full time player in 1981; at that point, the Montreal Expos featured two future Hall of Famers (Gary Carter and Andre Dawson) and one near member (Jeff Reardon). Dawson was most likely the best player on the team during Raines' first season, but after that it was Raines. Between 1983 and 1987 he was the best player on his team as Dawson developed knee problems.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in his league at his position?
Raines was a left fielder and leadoff man. He had the singular misfortune of being a direct contemporary with the best leadoff man in the history of baseball, Ricky Henderson. Raines was second best in baseball, making him the best in his league. Between 1981 and 1987, he was the best left fielder in the NL. After 1987, that title was owned by some guy named Bonds.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

In 1993, Raines played a key role for the White Sox, drawing 29 walks and stealing 14 bases without being caught in September and October. It was in July that he really shone, hitting .323 with an OPS of .925. In 1996, Raines showed uncharacteristic power in September, hitting 7 HR in 84 AB for the Yankees. He solidified their left field position that year, then played a key role in the next season. In the 1993 ALCS, he hit .444 for the Sox.

5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly past his prime?

Raines was last a full time player in 1995 for the White Sox at age 35. He slashed .285/.374/.422, continuing to get on base at a good clip and showing good gap power. In 1998, he was an above average offensive player for the Yankees, drawing 55 walks in 321 AB. After a diagnosis of lupus in 2000, Raines came back for parts of two seasons as a part time player with limited success.

6. Is he the best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

I don't think so. I would vote Barry Bonds for that label.

7. Are most of the players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?

Of the 10 players who are comparable with Raines, four (Lou Brock, Max Carey, Fred Clarke and Enos Slaughter) are in the hall. Two of those players (Clarke and Carey) were playing back in the 1910s and 1920s. Other similar players include Johnny Damon, Jose Cruz (who would be in the hall of fame but for an ankle injury and the Astrodome) and Kenny Lofton. Lofton is an interesting case, and needs to be looked at further. Unfortunately, this is not the place or time.

In actuality, Carey and Lofton are the most similar players to Raines. Both were leadoff men who drew walks and stole bases. Both played good defense (although both played some centerfield) but Raines had more power than Carey and somewhat more power than Lofton. Brock did not get on base at the clip that Raines did. Fred Clarke was the left fielder and manager for the great Pirates teams of the first decade of the 20th century. Slaughter was a hustling ball player who could hit .300 and put up 40 doubles a year, but he did not have the speed of Raines.

8.Do the player's numbers meet hall of fame standards?

Raines comes in at 47 according to baseball-reference.com. He is currently 5th all time in stolen bases and 36th in walks. Raines won one batting title and led the NL in steals for four consecutive years. The hall generally likes players such as Raines, who get a lot of hits and steal a lot of bases.

9. Is there evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than his statistics suggest?

Raines did a lot of the little things well. He got on base, took extra bases and was an excellent base stealer and showed some power. Raines stole 808 bases in his career and was caught only 146 times, which is a phenomenal success rate of 84.6%. He also walked more than he struck out (1330 vs. 966) and was a strong fielder in his younger days. In other words, maybe.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame and is not inducted?

No, that goes to Barry Bonds. I would put Raines at #2 on that list, with Moises Alou a distant third.

11. How many MVP type seasons did the player have? Did he win an MVP? How many times did he come close?

Raines never won an MVP, but was in the top 10 three times (1983, 1986 and 1987). His best season may have been 1985. Raines hit .320 with 54 extra base hits, stole 70 bases while being caught only 9 times and scored 115 runs. Or maybe it was 1987, when he won the NL batting title and led the league in runs with 123.

12.How many All Star type season did he have? How many All Star teams did he play for? Did most of the other players elected to that many games go into the hall of fame?
Raines was an all star caliber player between 1981 and 1993 and was selected for seven all star games. Out of left fielders, this is 9th highest all time. Six players of the same amount or more are in the Hall, with one ineligible (Pete Rose) and another in limbo (Barry Bonds). He was the MVP of the 1987 All Star game.

13. If this man was the best player on his team, would that team likely win the pennant?

I would argue yes.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history?

Raines was one of the high profile players affected by the Collusion scandal of the late 1980s. He became a free agent following the 1986 season but no one signed him despite his six consecutive all star games and NL batting title. He did not play for the entire month of April 1987 and resigned with the Expos. He was awarded some $895,000 dollars in compensation.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of the hall of fame?

I would argue yes, even though his nickname (Rock) bespoke his problems with cocaine in the 1980s. Raines was said to slide head first into bases to save the coke vials in his uniform pants. He was a very popular player with the Yankees, who pranked him when he received his World Series ring for 1997.

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

The Keltner List: Frank Thomas

Number three in the series is The Big Hurt Frank Thomas. I think he is forgotten at  this point, but he was Pujols before Pujols.


1. Was he ever considered the best player in baseball?

Thomas was never considered the best player in baseball, but many in the early 1990s considered him the game's best right handed hitter. He was a very large (6'5, 240 lbs) man who hit the ball very hard. Many of his home runs as a youngster were flat out line drives. Barry Bonds and Ken Griffey Jr. were the best players during Thomas' prime seasons.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

Thomas was the best player on the White Sox from 1992 through 1997 (Tim Raines was still very productive early in Thomas's career but was not the player he was in Montreal) and in 2000 and 2003. Injuries cost him several seasons in that period. Sammy Sosa was not yet the player he would become with the Cubs when Thomas came to the majors in 1990.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

Thomas was a full time first baseman from 1991-1996 before he moved to DH. In that time, he was arguably the best first baseman in the American League (not fielding, obviously). Was he better than Jeff Bagwell? Probably not, but let's compare the two.


 
Games
Runs
HR
RBI
BB
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS
Thomas
870
636
215
698
726
.327
.452
.603
1.054
Bagwell
846
545
144
589
500
.307
.406
.525
.931

(stats courtesy of www.baseball-reference.com)

Thomas was a superior hitter, but Bagwell was hampered by playing in the Astrodome. Bagwell was a better baserunner than Thomas and a much better fielder, but Thomas was the best first baseman in the AL. Fred McGriff should be in this discussion as well. Rafael Palmeiro also, but I am unable to tackle the steroids issue yet.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

In 1993, the White Sox went 29-14 after August 19 to win the AL West over the Rangers and Royals. During that stretch Thomas hit 9 HR with 28 RBIs. He struck out only 9 times. The White Sox were in first in 1994 when the strike hit by a game over a strong Indians team. That season was the second MVP of Thomas' career, and the White Sox would not have been in first without him. In 2006, the A's finished four games ahead of the Angels, with Thomas hitting 11 HR in September and October. Thomas was not on the post season roster for the 2005 White Sox.

5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly past his prime?

Yes if you count the DH. Thomas played only 131 games at first following the 1997 season. A tricep injury in 2001 cost him 140 games that year at age 33. He came back to post good numbers as a DH in 2003, 2006 and 2007 but was unable to play the field. He was no longer a .300 hitter but still had good power and plate discipline.

6. Is he the best player in baseball history who is not in the hall of fame?

No, that is probably Barry Bonds.

7. Are most players with comparable stats in the Hall of Fame?

Thomas finished his career with 521 HR, 1704 RBI, 1667 walks and the 14th highest OPS in history. There are only four players who are "essentially similar" to Thomas (defined by James as a comp score of 850 or over): Bagwell, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome and Fred McGriff. None of those four players are in the Hall, and only Bagwell and McGriff are eligible. Ramirez is in my mind the most similar to Thomas, in that they were both right handed power hitters who played poor defense, but Thomas drew many more walks than Ramirez. Bagwell is in a sense the most similar player. McGriff and Thome were both left handed. Pujols (822) is also similar to Thomas, but again is a better fielder. Jimmie Foxx, Mickey Mantle and Willie McCovey are also similar to Thomas (between 800-850) and all are in the Hall of Fame.

8. Do the players numbers meet hall of fame standards?

Thomas scores a 60 on the standards test, well above the 50 of an average hall of famer.

9. Is there evidence that the player was significantly better or worse than his statistics show?

I would argue that Thomas' defense was a liability. In 1997 he played only 97 games at first but committed 11 errors, the third most in the AL. By that point he was a professional hitter only due to back and arm problems. However, his bat produced far more runs than his defense gave away. Thomas was the model for OPS before OPS was cool;  he led the league in walks and OBP four times. Unfortunately none of his teammates could hit like Thomas.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but has not been inducted?

No; I would argue Bagwell is the best first baseman who is currently eligible.

11. How many MVP type seasons did he have? Did he win any MVPs? How many times was he close?

Thomas won back to back MVPs in 1993 and 1994. He finished second in 2000 and third in 1991 and 1997. He was in the top ten in the voting nine times in his fourteen full seasons, an impressive record for any player. He was the comeback player of the year in 2000.

12. How many All Star seasons did he have? How many All Star games did he play in?

Unbelievably, Thomas was selected to only 5 All Star games. In 1991 he finished third in the MVP voting, won the Silver Slugger award....but Cecil Fielder and Rafael Palmeiro were the first basemen for the AL. In 1992 he was 8th in the MVP voting, led the league in doubles and walks....but Mark McGwire was the all star starter and Thomas did not even get selected. The AL had a pretty good DH that year in Paul Molitor. Five all star games is not a lot for a hall of famer.

13. If this man were the best player on the team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

Absolutely.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history?

Thomas at one point held the record for most HR by a DH. He is still the career leader in multiple categories (HR, RBI, BB) for the White Sox. I think one of the reasons Thomas is overlooked is that by the year 2000, Thomas was just what the DH position was intended for: players who could still hit but could not longer play the field. This view of him as a "all hit-no field player" tends to discount his earlier accomplishments.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of the Hall of Fame?

Thomas had a very good relationship with the fans in Chicago throughout his time there, and was a noted leader in the locker room. He is known to be an outspoken proponent of drug testing for MLB and has said in the past that he got his 500 home runs "clean". I would say yes to this question.

For me, Thomas is a strange case. Bagwell will probably be voted in first, but Thomas is deserving. That said, however, is this because he put up 500 HR clean? What will we do with McGwire and Palmeiro? For that matter, what about Dale Murphy who won back to back MVPs in the 1980s, only to have his hitting records swamped by the steroid era?  Thomas suffers because by the time he started to break down other players were bulking up. For seven years (1991-1997) Thomas was as good a right handed hitter as many of us had ever seen, and again, finishing in the top 10 in MVP voting 9 times in a career is impressive.


 

The Keltner List -- Jeff Kent

This is the second installment of the Keltner List saga, this time starring Jeff Kent. 2014 is Kent's first year on the ballot.

Jeff Kent Player Page at BBRef

1. Was Kent ever regarded as the best player in baseball?

No. Kent was one of those players that no one paid much attention to, but who consistently put up excellent numbers. He was never considered to be the best player in baseball, to my knowledge.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

Let us look at the various teams which employed Jeff Kent for more than a partial season.
  • 1992-1996 New York Mets: on these rotten teams, Kent or Eddie Murray were the best players. Bobby Bonilla was hurt most of the time, and Gooden was at the mid point of his career implosion.
  • 1997-2002 San Francisco Giants: Barry Bonds was the best player on all of these teams, but Kent was second best.
  • 2003-04 Houston Astros: Kent was in the top three. Even though the Astros had Craig Biggio, they got Kent and installed him at second base. The Astros had Morgan Ensberg at third, and he provided 25 home runs in 2003.
  • 2005-08 Los Angeles Dodgers: On the 2005 Dodgers, a team which featured Hee Seop Choi and Olmedo Saenz at first base, you bet Jeff Kent was the best player on the team. What it means to be the best player on a team that lost 90 games, I have no idea.
3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position?

Between 1997 and 2005, Kent was the best offensive second baseman in the game. He did not have the defense of Alomar or Biggio, but he hit a ton and drove in runs in bunches. Alomar stole more bases, as did Biggio. Kent certainly feasted on the pitchers avoiding Barry Bonds, but on teams such as the 1993 Mets (21 HR, 80 RBI) and the 2005 Dodgers (65 XBH, 105 RBI with little offensive protection) Kent was the most dangerous or second most dangerous player in the lineup. If not, he is in the top three with Biggio and Alomar.

4. Did he have an impact on pennant races?
  • Traded to the Indians in 1996, Kent slashed .265/.322/.428 and played little part in the race.
  • In 1997, the Giants overtook the Dodgers in a three game series in September at 3 Com park. Kent went 1-11 with six strikeouts. Against the Dodgers for the year, Kent hit .105 with 16 strikeouts in 38 at bats. If anything, this could have been a negative impact.
  • In 2000, the Giants moved into first on July 29th, and Kent hit like a machine for the rest of the year, .300 with 16 HR and 36 RBI over his last 57 games. He then went 6-16 in a four game NLCS loss to the Mets.
  • In the 2002 World Series, Kent hit three home runs and had 7 RBI. This was lost in the "is this Bonds' moment" stuff, but he had a very good series.
  • In 2003 with the Astros, Kent slashed at a .330/.398/.526 clip in September and October. In a key series with the Cardinals from Sept 12-14, Kent went 4-9 with three doubles as the Astros moved a game ahead in the central; they wound up 1 game behind the Cubs
  • In 2004, the Astros finished with the NL wild card. Kent hit .366 with 3 HR and 14 RBI against the first place Cardinals.
5.Was he a good enough player that he could play regularly after passing his prime?

Absolutely. Kent's last very good season was in 2005 at age 37. He still put up an .875 OPS at age 39 with the Dodgers. In his last season at age 40 he hit 12 HR but was almost immobile in the field.

6. Is he the very best player in history who is not in the hall of fame?

No.

7. Are most players with comparable statistics in the hall of fame?

No players are truly comparable to Kent, which is a point in his favor. The closest is Adrian Beltre (873).  The only second baseman in his top ten list is Ryne Sandberg (802) who is in the hall of fame. Most of the rest are third baseman and outfielders, with two (Jim Rice and Ron Santo) in the Hall. Kent was the inheritor (along with Brent Boone) to Ryne Sandberg's mantle of the best power hitting second baseman in baseball. Kent was not close to Sandberg defensively, however.

8. Do the numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

Kent scores a 51 on the standards list, with a likely hall of famer being at 50. Kent remains 49th in history in RBIs, and is third all time among second basemen. He is the career leader in HR for second basemen.

9. Is there evidence to suggest that the player was better than his statistics show?

Kent did not have great range as a second baseman, but his defensive stats show that he was solid up the middle until his mid 30s. His offensive stats are very good, but he was playing in a period of high offensive numbers.

10. Is he the best player at his position eligible for the Hall of Fame who has not been enshrined?

I would argue he is second, behind Bobby Grich and virtually tied with Craig Biggio.

11. How many MVP type seasons did the player have? Did he ever win an MVP award? How many times was he close?

Kent was the NL MVP in 2000 (.334/.424/.596, 33 HR 125 RBI) and was in the top ten in voting three times (1997, 1998 and 2002).

12. How many All Star seasons did he have? How many all star teams did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go into the hall of fame?

Kent started four all star games and was selected for five. This is a fairly low total for a prospective hall of famer.

13. If this man was the best on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

I don't think so, but Kent in his prime years (1999-2002) would make a team interesting. The 2005 Dodgers lost 90 games with Kent as the best player with JD Drew injured. in Kent's defense he was 37 years old.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history?

Kent helped Bonds along the road to breaking Aaron's record, but not as much as the steroids. The same could be said of Matt Williams, however.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of the Hall of Fame?

Before he left the Giants, Kent broke his wrist in a motorcycle accident but claimed he fell from his truck while washing the bed. This violated his contract at the same time that he and Barry Bonds were publicly feuding. He also appeared on Survivor, but many people have made that mistake. He did win the 1998 Willie Mac Award from the Giants through a vote by his fellow players. Kent would be no worse (and perhaps a quite better citizen) than many members of the hall.

I would argue that Kent deserves a lot of consideration; he and Biggio will probably split votes this year, with Biggio getting elected before Kent. Biggio had a better relationship with the media and (most) of his teammates. He would not be a bad selection for the Hall.

Monday, November 11, 2013

The Keltner List -- Craig Biggio

Back in the 1990s, Bill James wrote an excellent book titled The Politics of Glory, which detailed the history of the baseball Hall of Fame. As is his wont, it also engaged in some lively statistical analysis and debate over the worthiness of many good (and great players). One thing that has stuck in my mind is the so-called Keltner List, a series of 15 questions.

The list is named for third baseman Ken Keltner, perhaps best known for making outstanding defensive plays to stop Joe DiMaggio's 56 game hitting streak in 1941. James describes the list as an "outline of the things that one might expect in a hall of fame player." (James, Politics of Glory, 275) I have decided to put several players through the Keltner list in anticipation of the Hall of Fame voting to be announced in January.

Up first is Craig Biggio, in his second year on the ballot. Biggio received 68% of the vote last year. All stats from www.baseball-reference.com

  1.  Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody suggest, while he was active, that he was the best player in baseball?
    1. From 1988 to 1991, Biggio was one of the best catchers in the NL, perhaps in baseball. He moved to second base in 1992 and won 4 gold gloves at that position (1994-97). He was always held as a great player. He certainly is one of the most versatile players of the last 50 years. Bill James famously argued in the late 1990s that Biggio was the best player in baseball, and wrote about it at length in the second edition of the Historical Baseball Analyst.
  2. Was he the best player on his team?
    1. This is tough. I would argue that Biggio was the best player on the Astros in 1997 and 1998, even better than Bagwell. Biggio led the league in runs, stole bases and played above average defense at a more demanding position than Bagwell. It could be argued that between 1994 and 2000, Biggio was the best player on his team, or at least a very close second to Bagwell.
  3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?
    1. As a catcher, he was valued more for his offense than defense. As a second baseman, perhaps the best in his league (though Jeff Kent may have a say). At his peak (1993-1998), Biggio was one of the top two second baseman in the NL, and those two usually rounded out the top three with Roberto Alomar. One could not go wrong with any of those players at second. As an outfielder, he was not the best player in his position either in baseball or in the National League.
  4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?
    1. In 1997, Biggio triple slashed .284/.424/.482 in August and September as the Astros hung on to 1st place in the NL central. He also swiped 27 bases in his last 54 games.
    2. On July 31, 1998 the Astros were in first by 3.5 games. Biggio hit .338 down the stretch with 8 HR and 17 SB as the Astros went 37-14 to win the division by 13 games.
    3. In 2004, the Astros won 45 of their last 69 games. Biggio hit only .254 but slugged 11 HR.
  5. Was he a good enough player to play regularly once he was past his prime?
    1. Biggio was a productive player until his late 30s, not really falling off until 2005 when he was 39.
  6. Is he the best player in baseball history who is NOT in the Hall of Fame?
    1. I would argue not, but he is certainly in the top 10 on that score. I would argue Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez are the best players not in the hall, and two of them are not eligible and two are tainted by steroids.
  7. Are most players with comparable statistics in the hall of fame?
    1. According to Baseball Reference, no player is truly comparable to Biggio. Player comps are rated on a scale to 1000, with 1000 being perfect comparableness. The highest comp scores are for Robin Yount (836) and Derek Jeter (823). Baseball Reference lists 10 players as most comparable, and seven are in the Hall. Of the other three, Jeter most certainly will be elected one day, Lou Whitaker is a borderline candidate and Johnny Damon is anyone's guess. As James points out, "great players usually have no true comparable, as they are unique." (James, 280)
  8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?
    1. Again, this info is recorded on baseball-reference.com, which uses an adaptation of James' standards. By James' calculation, an average hall of famer would score a 50, a truly great player (such as Babe Ruth or Walter Johnson) would score close to 100. Biggio scores a respectable 57.
  9. Is there evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?
    1. Biggio was a full time catcher for his first three seasons, and was average defensively. He then became a full time second baseman for the rest of his career with the exception of a two year exile in center field after the Astros signed Jeff Kent. Biggio was a good leadoff and second place hitter. When the Astros had Brian Hunter, Biggio batted second. Biggio was greatly respected as a team leader and hustle player. His batting helmet contained pine tar from what seemed like six presidential administrations. He and Bagwell are still very much the faces of the Astros franchise, serving as two of the "Killer Bees" of the 1990s. Add in the fact that Biggio was talented enough to make all star teams at two of the most demanding defensive positions, and that adds up to an excellent player.
  10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the hall of fame but not inducted?
    1. Perhaps, but Jeff Kent is a close second. I would rate Biggio higher than Lou Whitaker. Bobby Grich is still not inducted and should be, and I would rate him as better than Biggio. Grich played in a less favorable offensive era and was much better defensively. Willie Randolph is a tough case, but I like Biggio. Biggio hit for more power than Randolph, and got on base nearly as much. Plus, Biggio spent his career (until 2000) in the Astrodome and still had three seasons of 20 plus home runs. Granted, the 1990s was a time in which a dead man might hit a home run here or there, but Biggio was the better player.
  11. How many MVP type season did the player have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?
    1. Biggio never won an MVP award, but finished in the top 10 in voting three times (1994, 1995, 1997 and 1998). His 1998 season, (in which he hit .325, led the league in doubles, stole 50 bases and posted 210 hits) was lost in the steroid shuffle to 70 home runs. He deserved better than to finish fifth that year. I mean, a gold glove second baseman with 50 steals and an OPS of .906?
    2. 1997 and 1998 were probably Biggio's best years, and were thought to be close to MVP caliber by the sportswriters.
  12. How many All-Star type seasons did he have? how many all star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played this many go to the hall of fame?
    1. Biggio played in six all star games, including the 1991 game as a catcher. Of the second baseman who played in six or more all star games, only Grich and Bobby Richardson are not in, and Biggio was a much better player than Richardson.
  13. If this man were the best on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?
    1. I don't know. It would certainly contend, but I don't think it would win a pennant. Biggio got on base very well, ran extremely well for most of his career and had excellent gap power. On a team with some big bats behind him (such as Bagwell, Derek Bell or Jeff Kent) he scored 110 runs a year.
  14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he change the game in any way?
    1. Minimal.
  15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the hall of fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?
    1. Certainly. Biggio was held as a team leader and gave a lot of his time to various causes in Houston.

I would think that Biggio is an excellent hall of fame candidate, and should be voted in.