Wednesday, November 13, 2013

The Keltner List: Tim Raines

The next installment focuses on Tim Raines, who received a 52.2% vote in 2013. This is his 7th year on the ballot. Raines was a dangerous switch hitter for the Expos in the 1980s and for the White Sox and Yankees in the 1990s.


1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, suggest that he was the best player in baseball?
In 1988, Bill James concluded that Raines was the second best player in baseball outside of Wade Boggs. Tom Tango rates him as the best leadoff hitter in the National League during the 1980s. I do not know that anyone tagged Raines as the best player in baseball, but he was in the discussion for the top five or ten during the height of his career.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

Raines became a full time player in 1981; at that point, the Montreal Expos featured two future Hall of Famers (Gary Carter and Andre Dawson) and one near member (Jeff Reardon). Dawson was most likely the best player on the team during Raines' first season, but after that it was Raines. Between 1983 and 1987 he was the best player on his team as Dawson developed knee problems.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in his league at his position?
Raines was a left fielder and leadoff man. He had the singular misfortune of being a direct contemporary with the best leadoff man in the history of baseball, Ricky Henderson. Raines was second best in baseball, making him the best in his league. Between 1981 and 1987, he was the best left fielder in the NL. After 1987, that title was owned by some guy named Bonds.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

In 1993, Raines played a key role for the White Sox, drawing 29 walks and stealing 14 bases without being caught in September and October. It was in July that he really shone, hitting .323 with an OPS of .925. In 1996, Raines showed uncharacteristic power in September, hitting 7 HR in 84 AB for the Yankees. He solidified their left field position that year, then played a key role in the next season. In the 1993 ALCS, he hit .444 for the Sox.

5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly past his prime?

Raines was last a full time player in 1995 for the White Sox at age 35. He slashed .285/.374/.422, continuing to get on base at a good clip and showing good gap power. In 1998, he was an above average offensive player for the Yankees, drawing 55 walks in 321 AB. After a diagnosis of lupus in 2000, Raines came back for parts of two seasons as a part time player with limited success.

6. Is he the best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

I don't think so. I would vote Barry Bonds for that label.

7. Are most of the players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?

Of the 10 players who are comparable with Raines, four (Lou Brock, Max Carey, Fred Clarke and Enos Slaughter) are in the hall. Two of those players (Clarke and Carey) were playing back in the 1910s and 1920s. Other similar players include Johnny Damon, Jose Cruz (who would be in the hall of fame but for an ankle injury and the Astrodome) and Kenny Lofton. Lofton is an interesting case, and needs to be looked at further. Unfortunately, this is not the place or time.

In actuality, Carey and Lofton are the most similar players to Raines. Both were leadoff men who drew walks and stole bases. Both played good defense (although both played some centerfield) but Raines had more power than Carey and somewhat more power than Lofton. Brock did not get on base at the clip that Raines did. Fred Clarke was the left fielder and manager for the great Pirates teams of the first decade of the 20th century. Slaughter was a hustling ball player who could hit .300 and put up 40 doubles a year, but he did not have the speed of Raines.

8.Do the player's numbers meet hall of fame standards?

Raines comes in at 47 according to baseball-reference.com. He is currently 5th all time in stolen bases and 36th in walks. Raines won one batting title and led the NL in steals for four consecutive years. The hall generally likes players such as Raines, who get a lot of hits and steal a lot of bases.

9. Is there evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than his statistics suggest?

Raines did a lot of the little things well. He got on base, took extra bases and was an excellent base stealer and showed some power. Raines stole 808 bases in his career and was caught only 146 times, which is a phenomenal success rate of 84.6%. He also walked more than he struck out (1330 vs. 966) and was a strong fielder in his younger days. In other words, maybe.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame and is not inducted?

No, that goes to Barry Bonds. I would put Raines at #2 on that list, with Moises Alou a distant third.

11. How many MVP type seasons did the player have? Did he win an MVP? How many times did he come close?

Raines never won an MVP, but was in the top 10 three times (1983, 1986 and 1987). His best season may have been 1985. Raines hit .320 with 54 extra base hits, stole 70 bases while being caught only 9 times and scored 115 runs. Or maybe it was 1987, when he won the NL batting title and led the league in runs with 123.

12.How many All Star type season did he have? How many All Star teams did he play for? Did most of the other players elected to that many games go into the hall of fame?
Raines was an all star caliber player between 1981 and 1993 and was selected for seven all star games. Out of left fielders, this is 9th highest all time. Six players of the same amount or more are in the Hall, with one ineligible (Pete Rose) and another in limbo (Barry Bonds). He was the MVP of the 1987 All Star game.

13. If this man was the best player on his team, would that team likely win the pennant?

I would argue yes.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history?

Raines was one of the high profile players affected by the Collusion scandal of the late 1980s. He became a free agent following the 1986 season but no one signed him despite his six consecutive all star games and NL batting title. He did not play for the entire month of April 1987 and resigned with the Expos. He was awarded some $895,000 dollars in compensation.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of the hall of fame?

I would argue yes, even though his nickname (Rock) bespoke his problems with cocaine in the 1980s. Raines was said to slide head first into bases to save the coke vials in his uniform pants. He was a very popular player with the Yankees, who pranked him when he received his World Series ring for 1997.

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

The Keltner List: Frank Thomas

Number three in the series is The Big Hurt Frank Thomas. I think he is forgotten at  this point, but he was Pujols before Pujols.


1. Was he ever considered the best player in baseball?

Thomas was never considered the best player in baseball, but many in the early 1990s considered him the game's best right handed hitter. He was a very large (6'5, 240 lbs) man who hit the ball very hard. Many of his home runs as a youngster were flat out line drives. Barry Bonds and Ken Griffey Jr. were the best players during Thomas' prime seasons.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

Thomas was the best player on the White Sox from 1992 through 1997 (Tim Raines was still very productive early in Thomas's career but was not the player he was in Montreal) and in 2000 and 2003. Injuries cost him several seasons in that period. Sammy Sosa was not yet the player he would become with the Cubs when Thomas came to the majors in 1990.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

Thomas was a full time first baseman from 1991-1996 before he moved to DH. In that time, he was arguably the best first baseman in the American League (not fielding, obviously). Was he better than Jeff Bagwell? Probably not, but let's compare the two.


 
Games
Runs
HR
RBI
BB
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS
Thomas
870
636
215
698
726
.327
.452
.603
1.054
Bagwell
846
545
144
589
500
.307
.406
.525
.931

(stats courtesy of www.baseball-reference.com)

Thomas was a superior hitter, but Bagwell was hampered by playing in the Astrodome. Bagwell was a better baserunner than Thomas and a much better fielder, but Thomas was the best first baseman in the AL. Fred McGriff should be in this discussion as well. Rafael Palmeiro also, but I am unable to tackle the steroids issue yet.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

In 1993, the White Sox went 29-14 after August 19 to win the AL West over the Rangers and Royals. During that stretch Thomas hit 9 HR with 28 RBIs. He struck out only 9 times. The White Sox were in first in 1994 when the strike hit by a game over a strong Indians team. That season was the second MVP of Thomas' career, and the White Sox would not have been in first without him. In 2006, the A's finished four games ahead of the Angels, with Thomas hitting 11 HR in September and October. Thomas was not on the post season roster for the 2005 White Sox.

5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly past his prime?

Yes if you count the DH. Thomas played only 131 games at first following the 1997 season. A tricep injury in 2001 cost him 140 games that year at age 33. He came back to post good numbers as a DH in 2003, 2006 and 2007 but was unable to play the field. He was no longer a .300 hitter but still had good power and plate discipline.

6. Is he the best player in baseball history who is not in the hall of fame?

No, that is probably Barry Bonds.

7. Are most players with comparable stats in the Hall of Fame?

Thomas finished his career with 521 HR, 1704 RBI, 1667 walks and the 14th highest OPS in history. There are only four players who are "essentially similar" to Thomas (defined by James as a comp score of 850 or over): Bagwell, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome and Fred McGriff. None of those four players are in the Hall, and only Bagwell and McGriff are eligible. Ramirez is in my mind the most similar to Thomas, in that they were both right handed power hitters who played poor defense, but Thomas drew many more walks than Ramirez. Bagwell is in a sense the most similar player. McGriff and Thome were both left handed. Pujols (822) is also similar to Thomas, but again is a better fielder. Jimmie Foxx, Mickey Mantle and Willie McCovey are also similar to Thomas (between 800-850) and all are in the Hall of Fame.

8. Do the players numbers meet hall of fame standards?

Thomas scores a 60 on the standards test, well above the 50 of an average hall of famer.

9. Is there evidence that the player was significantly better or worse than his statistics show?

I would argue that Thomas' defense was a liability. In 1997 he played only 97 games at first but committed 11 errors, the third most in the AL. By that point he was a professional hitter only due to back and arm problems. However, his bat produced far more runs than his defense gave away. Thomas was the model for OPS before OPS was cool;  he led the league in walks and OBP four times. Unfortunately none of his teammates could hit like Thomas.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but has not been inducted?

No; I would argue Bagwell is the best first baseman who is currently eligible.

11. How many MVP type seasons did he have? Did he win any MVPs? How many times was he close?

Thomas won back to back MVPs in 1993 and 1994. He finished second in 2000 and third in 1991 and 1997. He was in the top ten in the voting nine times in his fourteen full seasons, an impressive record for any player. He was the comeback player of the year in 2000.

12. How many All Star seasons did he have? How many All Star games did he play in?

Unbelievably, Thomas was selected to only 5 All Star games. In 1991 he finished third in the MVP voting, won the Silver Slugger award....but Cecil Fielder and Rafael Palmeiro were the first basemen for the AL. In 1992 he was 8th in the MVP voting, led the league in doubles and walks....but Mark McGwire was the all star starter and Thomas did not even get selected. The AL had a pretty good DH that year in Paul Molitor. Five all star games is not a lot for a hall of famer.

13. If this man were the best player on the team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

Absolutely.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history?

Thomas at one point held the record for most HR by a DH. He is still the career leader in multiple categories (HR, RBI, BB) for the White Sox. I think one of the reasons Thomas is overlooked is that by the year 2000, Thomas was just what the DH position was intended for: players who could still hit but could not longer play the field. This view of him as a "all hit-no field player" tends to discount his earlier accomplishments.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of the Hall of Fame?

Thomas had a very good relationship with the fans in Chicago throughout his time there, and was a noted leader in the locker room. He is known to be an outspoken proponent of drug testing for MLB and has said in the past that he got his 500 home runs "clean". I would say yes to this question.

For me, Thomas is a strange case. Bagwell will probably be voted in first, but Thomas is deserving. That said, however, is this because he put up 500 HR clean? What will we do with McGwire and Palmeiro? For that matter, what about Dale Murphy who won back to back MVPs in the 1980s, only to have his hitting records swamped by the steroid era?  Thomas suffers because by the time he started to break down other players were bulking up. For seven years (1991-1997) Thomas was as good a right handed hitter as many of us had ever seen, and again, finishing in the top 10 in MVP voting 9 times in a career is impressive.