Thursday, December 12, 2013

The Keltner List: Curt Schilling

Next up on the countdown is Curt Schilling. If there was a font that screamed "cheesy 1980s radio voice" I would use it. Stay tuned to WAZS where the third caller gets free tickets to the Cochise County Fair reunion show of Red Rider! Sheesh.

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball?

Schilling arrived in the late 1980s (which seems like a long time ago) after a few average to above average seasons in Triple A. Believe it or not, he was traded to the Orioles along with Brady Anderson for Mike Boddicker in 1988, who is my distant cousin. I don't think that Schilling was ever regarded as the best player in baseball, but best pitcher? That's another question.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

Schilling was used as a reliever early in his career, and was not made a starter until the 1992 season. Schilling was probably the best pitcher for a few years with the Phillies, but not the best player. Again, was he the best pitcher on his team? With the Phillies he absolutely was from 1995 to his trade to the D-Backs in 2000. With the Red Sox, he was the ace of the staff for two seasons. Hell, I would take him as the best player on those Phillies teams.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

By the late 1990s, Schilling was on the short list of the best pitcher in the NL, a list dominated by Greg Maddux and future teammate Pedro Martinez. I would have put him in third or fourth on that list. In some ways, I think Schilling's status as a pitcher is impacted negatively because of his teammates. Schilling was on teams with Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson, both pitchers a shade better than Schilling, This is not to say for a minute that Schilling was not a great pitcher, he was most years after 1997; he shared the spotlight with great pitchers and hall of fame talents. Schilling was usually one of the best pitchers in his league in 1992-93, 1997-1999, 2001-04. However, he may not have been as good as one of his teammates.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

Schilling is best known for the "Bloody Sock", but he had plenty of chances in the postseason before that. Schilling made his first World Series start in Game 1 of the 1993 series. Schilling got hit pretty hard and gave up 6 ER in 6+ innings. After that? Here are the totals for Schilling's next 6 series starts:

Games
W-L
IP
H
R
ER
BB
SO
6
4-0
41 2/3 
25
6
5
8
40

Schilling made four World Series appearances, and did not lose a game over the last three. That line is Gibson-esque. Overall, Schilling recorded 11 post season wins.

2001 with the Diamondbacks typifies Schilling. The DBacks won the west by 2 games over the Giants. Schilling gave up six runs on 10 hits in a game on Sept 18 with the Rockies. For the rest of August and September, Schilling was 9-1 with a WHIP of 0.974 and 94 Ks in 77 innings. Many times he got popped for one game, but then would just be dominant. In 2001-2 Schilling was 6-2 against the Giants with 72 Ks in 60 innings. He did not fare as well against the Yankees, but a 7-8 record against them wasn't bad. Schilling also carried a winning record against winning teams.

5. Was he good enough to contribute past his prime?

Schilling recorded three twenty win seasons after the age of 33, and won 15 games at age 39. He only had one subpar season after age 35 (2005) due to injuries. That qualifies as contributing.

6. Is he the best player in history not in the hall of fame?

No, but Schilling is on the short list of the best pitchers not in the hall of fame.

7. Are most players with similar statistics in the Hall of Fame?

Only two of Schilling's comps are hall of famers: Don Drysdale and Dazzy Vance. Both fit Schilling's profile of a hard throwing right hander who struck out men in bunches. His closest comps are Kevin Brown (920) and Bob Welch (900), both VERY high comp scores. Brown got 2.1% of the voting on his only year on the hall ballot in 2011. Brown, of course, got pummeled in game 7 of the 2004 ALCS, the day after Schilling won the Bloody Sock game. Brown's career ended the next year after a 4-7 season with the Yankees. Why did Brown only get 2.1%? Three things, in all likelihood:

1. Brown won 20 games once. Voters like big seasons.
2. Brown did not pitch well in the World Series (0-3 in four starts with an ERA over 6)
3. Most writers thought he was kind of a jerk, and he had a reputation as something of a mercenary.

Welch looked like a phenom in 1978 with the Dodgers, winning seven games, throwing three shutouts and nabbing three saves in one season at age 21. Welch's career was nearly derailed by alcoholism (a tale he tells very well in the book Five o' clock Comes Early) but he came back to win 57 games in three seasons with the A's teams of the late 80s. He is a good comp for Schilling because of his career trajectory; a few seasons where it was unclear where the arm would fit, a career lull in the middle and great heights at the end. In 2000, Welch got 0.2% of the vote for the Hall. His heights were not as great nor as long lasting as Schillings.

8. Do the players number meet hall of fame standards?

Schilling scores a 171 on the hall monitor, with a 46 on the standards. Both are quite respectable, with Schilling ranking 34th all time on the monitor score.

9. Is there evidence to suggest he was much better or worse than his statistics?

I think Schilling was better than his records, simply because of the attitude he brought to the mound. He was one of those athletes that are called "leaders", which is usually bull shit. With Schilling it wasn't, as he went out and won games. It is no small coincidence that the 1992 and 1993 Phillies and the 2004 Red Sox were cast as "working class" teams who liked to drink beer, have fun and win ball games. Schilling was a leader on both of those teams, and it was a wonderful sight to see.

There are four pitchers in my life I would watch pitch on TV or live if I had the chance, just because of what they did:

1. Tim Wakefield: probably the last great knuckleballer we will ever see, which is awful. Why doesn't someone go back to mixing in a knuckler here and there like a lot of the old timers did in the 1930s and 1940s? It would work! Got a 90 MPH fastball and a crummy change up? Toss a knuckler up there and see what happens.
2. Nolan Ryan: he was 1000 years old when I was in grade school and did not retire until I was in college. Good lord, he threw hard for a long time. I have no earthly idea how he did it. "Awesome" is a word most overused these days, but Ryan was in that he inspired wonder and no small amount of fear.
3. Pedro Martinez: attitude and throwing inside. Not many people do that anymore, and Martinez was one of the better guys at throwing inside with control. My dad used to tell me stories about Sal Maglie when I was a kid, and Martinez made me think of him.
4. Jamie Moyer: again, how did he do that? Moyer always made me happy on the mound, simply because he was the anti-strongman. His changeup leisurely knocked down large men with tree trunk legs that dominated baseball in the 1990s. He was the David in a Goliath Steroid game writ large, and it was beautiful.

10. Is he the best player eligible who has not been inducted?

No.

11. How many Cy Young type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an Cy Young Award? If not, how often did he come close?

He was the Co-MVP of the 2001 World Series with Randy Johnson. Schilling never won a CYA. He finished second three times and fourth in the voting once. This seems odd to me, but looking at the years involved, it makes sense. Here are the winners in Schilling's seven highest WAR seasons:

1992: Schilling was 14-11, had 26 relief appearances and 16 starts, 4 shutouts, 2 saves, 10 CG and an ERA of 2.35. Greg Maddux won the award that year and Schilling did not make the top 5.

1997: Schilling's first "big" year. Led league in Ks, wins 17 games. Winner Pedro Martinez also won 17 games, and he and Schilling were the only pitchers in the NL to strike out 300 hitters. Martinez had an ERA a run lower than Schillings. Schilling finished 4th, behind Denny Neagle, but should have been third behind Martinez and Maddux.

1998: Schilling went 15-14 and received zero votes, even though he led the league in IP, K and CG. He was as good, if not better, than the winner Tom Glavine, and certainly better than John Smoltz or  the recently-traded-to-the-Astros Randy Johnson.

2001: Second to Randy Johnson. Schilling and Johnson combined to win 43 games and strikeout 645 hitters. The only pitcher better than Schilling in the NL (and the game that year) was Johnson.

2002: If anything, Johnson and Schilling were better in 2002. 11.26 K/9 over 71 starts with 49 wins. For the second straight year, the only pitcher in baseball better than Schilling was his teammate.

2004: Second to Johan Santana, which was a legitimate vote. Both won 20 games, but Santana's peripherals were better.


12. How many all star type seasons did he have? How many All Star teams did he play for? Did most other players selected to that many All Star games get elected to the Hall of Fame?

Schilling made six AS teams and started two games.  He is in good company, sharing that number with Jim Palmer and Lefty Grove. In Groves' defense, they didn't have an All Star game until he had led the league in Ks seven times and won an MVP award. A good rule of thumb for pitchers is 7 appearances, and Schilling is on the cusp.

13. If this man was the best player on his team, could his team win the pennant?

If Schilling is his teams best pitcher, that team would contend for a division title but probably not a pennant.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history?

Schilling was a central character in Boston's first world series victory in 86 years and was a vital piece of two other championships. His performance in game 6 of the 2004 ALCS, coming as it did with the Red Sox pushing for an historic comeback, the ESPN fanned rivalry and the feeling that if Schilling did his thing there was no way in hell the Red Sox were not going to win a game 7, is historic. Even if the Red Sox and Yankee rivalry wasn't for about 30 years before the 1990s. I think every baseball fan in the Universe owes that team a debt of gratitude in that we will not have to hear about the Curse of the Bambino ever again.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of the Hall of Fame?

Schilling certainly does, giving generously of his time to various charities and doing yeoman's work in support of ALS research. Business troubles aside, Schilling was an excellent teammate, positive clubhouse presence and has put his celebrity to good use in the wider world.

If anything, Schilling makes me dislike Jack Morris' candidacy a little more. Let's compare the two in the World Series, upon which much of the Morris candidacy rests:


Games
W
IP
H
ER
BB
SO
Morris
7
4
51 2/3
44
17
18
40
Schilling
7
4
48
33
11
10
43

Schilling led the league in wins twice, Morris twice. Morris led the league in complete games once, Schilling four times. In 563 fewer innings, Schilling struck out 638 more hitters and walked 620 fewer than Morris. Schilling made one more All Star team than Morris. If the argument for Morris centers on his place as a "Big Game" Pitcher, what to do with Schilling, whose post season record is every bit as good, made more all star games and won just as many titles as Morris? Schilling led his league in categories twice as often as Morris and scores higher in both the hall of fame monitor and standards.  Schilling's seven year WAR, courtesy of BBref, is 49.0 to Morris' 32.8 Roughly, a peak Schilling was worth two more wins a year to his team than a peak Morris. I'll take Schilling.

 

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

The Keltner List: Alan Trammell

Next up it's Alan Trammell, a great shortstop and one of my favorite players as a kid.

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball?

Trammell was regarded as an excellent shortstop, but not the best player in baseball. He was one of those players that did everything pretty well, so he was lost in the rush to look at one item that was done at a level above everyone else.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

If not, it was usually between he and Kirk Gibson, as both had the capacity for .300 seasons with 20 HR and 20 SB. I will give the edge to Trammell as he was a shortstop.  Trammell is one of the best Tigers of all time, and certainly the best shortstop in franchise history, beating out Donnie Bush easily.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

Trammell suffers as a direct contemporary to Ozzie Smith and Cal Ripken. Trammell is in the middle of this argument, not quite the defensive player that Smith was and not quite the offensive player that Ripken was. None of these players were as good as Barry Larkin (yes, I even think Larkin was better than Ripken). Ripken was underrated defensively, as was Trammell. Robin Yount is also in that talk. I would not peg him as the best shortstop in the game over his career, but in individual seasons he most certainly was (1987, 1984). Within his league, it was down to between he, Ripken and Yount. He was always in the discussion.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

Trammell was MVP of the 1984 World Series, and played very well against the Royals during the ALCS.

In 1987, Trammell slashed .417/.490/.677 in September and October as the Tigers took the AL East by two games over Toronto. For the year, he hit .340 against the Jays. The Tigers won 6 of their last nine games to overcome a 2.5 game deficit; Trammell posted an OPS of 1.087, scoring 6 runs with six extra base hits in those nine games. On October 3rd, Trammell singled home Jim Walewander in the bottom of the 12th to win the game for the Tigers and put them in a 1 game lead over Toronto with 1 game remaining. The next day, Frank Tanana threw a shutout and Larry Herndon provided the offense in a 1-0 Tigers win. The next year, Trammell was injured in September and not his usual self.

5. Was he good enough to contribute past his prime?

Trammell was beset by injuries in his later years, playing in 100 games only twice after he turned 32. The broken ankle he suffered in 1992 left him a different player.

6. Is he the best player in history not in the hall of fame?

No, but he is closer to Bonds than most.

7. Are most players with similar statistics in the Hall of Fame?

According to James' formulation, only two players are "truly similar" to Trammell: Edgar Renteria and Barry Larkin. Larkin is in the Hall and Renteria is not yet eligible. Of those players "similar" to Trammell, Larkin and Ryne Sandberg are in the Hall of Fame. Five of the players in Trammell's list are shortstops, and I would rate Larkin slightly above Trammell. Longtime double play partner Lou Whitaker is 5th on Trammell's list, right behind Jimmy Rollins.

8. Do the players number meet hall of fame standards?

Trammell scores a 40 on the hall of fame standards and a 118 on the hall monitor. These are middle of the road figures. Compare his peak years to other shortstops, and Trammell is ahead of Larkin, Lou Boudreau, Bobby Wallace, Joe Sewell and Pee Wee Reese according to JAWS. In total WAR, Trammell ranks 11th all time at shortstop, with all but two (Alex Rodriguez and Bill Dahlen) in the Hall of Fame.

9. Is there evidence to suggest he was much better or worse than his statistics?

In 1987, Trammell hit cleanup for the Tigers and produced his best offensive season. Trammell was an odd bird, as the "offensive" shortstops of the 1980s were large men. Trammell was 6'0 and listed at 165. Ripken was 4 inches taller and outweighed Trammell by 35 pounds. When Trammell first reached the majors his defense was below average; by the mid-80s he was an above average shortstop. He and Whitaker, along with Gibson, formed the core of a Tigers team that posted 11 consecutive winning seasons.

10. Is he the best player eligible who has not been inducted?

No.

11. How many MVP type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP Award? If not, how often did he come close?

Trammell never won an MVP award, but finished 2nd in 1987. Trammell finished 21 points behind George Bell of the Blue Jays, which was a questionable vote. I would have gone with Trammell. He finished in the top ten in voting two other times (1988 and 1984).

12. How many all star type seasons did he have? How many All Star teams did he play for? Did most other players selected to that many All Star games get elected to the Hall of Fame?

Trammell made six all star teams, suffering as a direct contemporary to Cal Ripken. Being in competition with an all time great, however, has its place. Take Trammell's 1986 season: (.277/.347/.469) with an OPS of 120. 21 HR , 269 Total Bases....and he is not on the all star team. Trammell was worthy in 1986 and 1993 but was not selected.

13.If this man was the best player on his team, could his team win the pennant?
Pre 1992 ankle injury, absolutely. A shortstop with 20 HR power and good speed? Sign me up.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history?

Whitaker and Trammell spent their entire careers with one team, which had become exceedingly rare by the time they had reached the majors in the late 1970s. Whitaker and Trammell are the longest serving double play combination in major league history. Trammell was also credited to an extent by Jim Leyland for providing professional guidance and example which bore fruit in the Tigers 2006 championship run.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of the Hall of Fame?

As far as I know.

I would not hesitate to vote for Trammell for the Hall. I would rank him ahead of Phil Rizzuto, Hughie Jennings and Joe Tinker, to name a few. Trammell suffers in comparison to Ozzie Smith and Cal Ripken, two of the most deserving hall of famers at his position. In this sense, he is not unlike Tim Raines. A great player, one of the very best at his position over the last 50 years, who is overshadowed by someone even better than he. If you look at Trammell's peak WAR, he is 8th all time among shortstops. At his peak, Trammell was one of the ten best in baseball history at his position, and was damn good for a while besides.